millarworld.tv Comics Creators

Your Ant-Man and FF box-office predictions!


#1

This is interesting. Ant-Man on track to open at 60 million or so, which is comparable with the first Captain America movie. I reckon it’ll do a Guardians and open a little higher and FF open a little higher still, as it’s more of a classic Marvel brand name. Here’s the sums. What do you think?

MM


#2

I can see Ant-Man opening a little higher than that, but it sounds about right to me.

FF, I’m really not sure. I think a decent number of superhero fans will see it, if only out of curiosity, but I have no idea if it’s really connecting with wider audiences. And without the Marvel Studios brand strength to fall back on, I think it may end up opening a little lower than Ant-Man. Maybe $45m?


#3

Those numbers sound right for Ant Man… A success but not a wild one like Guardians. The ads have been fun, it has a known cast, the reviews are mostly positive, but it is still an odd concept for audiences.

Maybe it is just me but I don’t sense the same interest in FF. It isn’t like Batman or Superman, where people are going to show up to see the next incarnation of a cultural lodestone. And they aren’t doing much to make it a date film with strong characterization.


#4

It’ll do fine, but if the estimates are accurate then we’re looking for great word of mouth to push it as high as something as like ‘Guardians’, over the course of it’s run in cinemas.

Opening weekend it’s up against the ‘Minions’, and although that film will drop off somewhat, it’s a solid hit.


#5

I think most folks are wary of predicting Ant Man as no-one knows what it’ll do. $65 million is where Cap and Thor came in, and frankly if that’s where it hits then it’s a damning indictment of the lack of value in the Marvel brand.

So I think it’ll come in higher, at least $80 million, maybe at least $90 million. While many people soured on Avengers 2, this is a safe action flick to take the whole family to and that means alot these days. Plus I think the generally good reviews will made families comfortable with their investment. It’s now the kind of movie viewers have low expectations for, so even it’s it’s just good it’ll be better than they expected and positive word of mouth will result. So I’d say $90 mil opening, $650mil worldwide. If not then Marvel is in more trouble than it appears.

FF on the other hand I think has a huge amount of bad will against it for some reason, and I doubt if it’ll do half of what Ant Man does. I just don’t see that movie working in today’s market.


#6

I’m not sure, I don’t think Ant-Man has the same buzz as GotG did last year. This film has been marketed as much more safe and conventional, and I don’t know if they’ve really managed to create the same hook that stuff like Rocket and Groot provided.

$65m is a low-end estimate I think, but I would be surprised if it went as high as $90m. Very hard to guess though.


#7

55-65 opening for Ant-Man, to a 148-165 domestic tally. Maybe 450-500 WW. For FF, my expectations are much softer. Opening in the high 40’s to mid 50’s, tapering out around 130ish. Too much competition with the latest Mission Impossible for it to break out the way Fox probably wishes it would, and the trailers have been uninspiring. I don’t see it flopping, but I don’t see a hit, either. Which is a shame, as the FF are my favorite non-Daredevil Marvel property. I thought casting Miles Teller was inspired, and Jordan is always solid, but the rest of the cast is merely adequate, and I think Kate Mara looks completely lost. I dunno…I’ll still probably see it.


#8

“If not then Marvel is in more trouble than it appears.”

No it isn’t. Ant-Man has a modest (for a Summer major release) budget of 130 million dollars…50ish million less than GOTG or The Dark World. The bar for success for this movie is much lower than one of the Marvel’s films that cost closer to 200 million. This is a modest release with modest fanfare which will, in all likelihood, be a modest hit. It’s not going to shatter records and it probably won’t upend expectations, but I certainly don’t see it being unsuccessful by any stretch, nor will it be some kind of precursor of doom for Marvel if it doesn’t break 600 WW. people are labor ing under the idea that every Marvel release must be a MASSIVE HIT, and if it’s not, then it must be a MASSIVE FAILURE, and that’s kind of silly.


#9

Minions will cut into the family crowd and Trainwreck the Paul Rudd crowd. May be a tricky week to open.

The FF movie looks to have the same issues as AMS. What is its reason for existing so soon after the 00s FF films? None. It basically looks the same. After the returns of Godzilla and Jurassic they clearly screwed up big time by recycling a limp looking Doom rather than opening with Mole Man.

All this said I the estimates in this thread are low. People have a real thirst for movies right now, at least as long as Arnold Schwarzenegger isn’t involved, and these both should do better than even the high guesses here.


#10

I don’t think the Minions movie will cut too much into it. The word of mouth ice heard on it is mediocre at best, a waste of time at worst.


#11

Those people are Disney executives. If you only have 2 spots a year, why waste one on a venture that doesn’t make any money. And the marketing on Ant Man is pretty extensive. There’s probably a hundred million thrown in there too. $500 million worldwide is break even, and that’d be one of their lowest showings in a time when they should be growing.

Marvel just got done showing any franchise can be a hit with GotG. now if Ant Man proves that wrong it makes Dr Strange and Black Panther very risky propositions that are going to be difficult to budget and plan for. And it’ll probably drastically change their strategy for Captain Marvel. There’s alot of consequences depending on the fate of Ant Man.


#12

I’m not sure. I kind of see this as a second wave for Marvel, to be honest - a new group of heroes that will need to be established and built up with the public before they get anywhere near Avengers level.

Ten years ago, no-one knew who Iron Man, Thor and Cap were, and now they’re worldwide stars and household names. There’s no reason why Marvel can’t do that again, but it’s unrealistic to think that new characters will immediately have the same traction as the established names.

I see this as a smart long-term strategy from Marvel that goes beyond just keeping the box-office at a certain level from movie to movie. It’s about keeping their run of success sustainable for the next couple of decades rather than just the next few years.


#13

Not only will Ant-Man do very well, but it will (here it comes, I’ve been waiting to say) have legs!!!

I see a real solid opening weekend, but not Avengers/GotG numbers. I think it may even be beaten by Trainwreck and as an absolute solid third Mr. Holmes (with Ian McKellen). Both will draw similar numbers the next weekend, and it is possible the top two will flip-flop with Ant-Man on top, Mr. Holmes dropping but then keeping at 5th-7th for 3-4 weeks.

The tale will be told by Fantasic Fours opening weekend, likely heavily indicated by comparing Friday and Sunday numbers. If Friday is lower than expected (which is my guess - much lower than expected) and the film is good, Sunday numbers will take a big jump. If it’s not the best, it will vanish. If it is really good, word of mouth will kick in and it will be a late-awakening blockbuster. As things size up, this has been the most unpredictable film to guess about in many a year!

It’s a great time to sell the producing team ulcer medications and tranquilizers, though!


#14

$6.4 million on Thursday previews - lowest since the 1st Cap film. Now the question is what percentage will that be of the whole.


#15

I feel like there is a decent chance Trainwreck could beat Ant-Man in North America this weekend. Amy Schumer is really hot right now, there hasn’t been a good comedy in a while, and the movie is getting really good reviews and word of mouth.


#16

I think ANT-MAN will be closer to the 50 mil opening and will not set the world on fire the way Guardians managed. I don’t see the FF pulling in a lot of audience appeal, yet, nor do I really see what the appeal is supposed to be. Just based on the trailers, the question as to why anyone should pay to see this in a theater has not been answered very strongly. Like someone else pointed out, with Victor joining the crew, the story looks a lot like the first FF film from just a few years back with something like an INTERSTELLER tone to the cinematography. So far, it doesn’t really even look like a superhero movie.

With that in mind, I think it might perform similar to PACIFIC RIM though that movie had a lot more going for it before opening.


#17

Box Office Mojo are predicting $60m for Ant-Man and $25m for Trainwreck. While forecasts are far from perfect I can’t recall them being that far out before.


#18

Ok that’s interesting. I think that Trainwreck forecast is way low but you’re right, they’re usually not that far off.


#19

How Ant-Man’s Thursday Box Office Compares To Guardians Of The Galaxy

THR reports that Ant-Man grabbed an estimated $6.4 million on Thursday night, which is roughly half what Guardians of the Galaxy pulled during its Thursday night run. James Gunn’s space adventure, starring Chris Pratt and Zoe Saldana, netted $11.2 million in August 2014, setting the record for the largest pre-opening tally of the year (a record that had been held by Captain America: The Winter Soldier). Guardians of the Galaxy went on to earn $333 million domestically. It was the third-highest grossing movie of 2014, behind American Sniper and The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1. It was a massive success.


#20

Ant-Man will make money. It’s modestly budgeted at around 130 million. Yeah, there’s marketing/printing to consider, but there’s also product tie-ins that almost always offset those costs. No one ever talks about that, and the studios don’t like to bring it up in the press (except for WB bragging about Man of Steel’s tie-ins, for some reason.) I think you might be overstating a bit when you say that there are “alot of consequences” surrounding the success of the movie. If it tanked, yeah, I would agree. But it’s not going to tank. At all. It’s going to do okay in the States, it’s probably going to make 300-400 million more overseas, and it will almost certainly end up with 475-550 million before all is said and done. Marvel will make money off its theatrical run. It won’t break the bank, or anything, but I tend to believe, based on numbers and trends, that it will be a modest success. Not every Marvel movie has to be a 200 million budgeted game-changing massive hit for the studio to be successful. And, not for nothing, but this movie springboards Ant-Man right into Civil War, and then into the Avengers 3, two movies basically guaranteed to break a billion at the BO, raising awareness of the character and increasing his fanbase (theoretically,) giving a potential sequel greater chance of outshining its predecessor, ala the massive success of the Winter Soldier over the mild success of the First Avenger. Marvel’s playing the long-game here, I think. The first movie introduces the character and his/her unique corner of the universe, then he/she appears in one of the team-up movies, and then returns to their corner with stronger pedigree and more people interested in seeing him/her again. It worked for Captain America, largely considered to be the hardest sell in the Avengers series (granted, the Winter Soldier was also an excellent movie, which certainly contributed to its success over the First Avenger.) They’ll make tens of millions off of Ant-Man, then they’ll make a hundred or so million off of Ant-Man 2 in a few years.