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Which Comic Movie will do best in 2016?


#1
  • Deadpool
  • Batman v Superman
  • X-Men Apocalypse
  • Captain America: Civil War
  • Suicide Squad
  • Doctor Strange

0 voters

Okay so we already know Deadpool did really well but will it be surpassed by any of the other pretenders? Who will have the crown of the biggest box office and why?


Thread of Justice: Batman V Superman discussion
#2

BvS… because it’s frickin’ Batman and Superman (and Wonderwoman and god knows who else xD) for the first time ever together in the big screen. So yeah, it’ll be the one that will make the most money.

But, Deadpool already is and will remain by far the most profitable, thus the most succesful and the one which technically “does best” in 2016.

I’d keep my eye on Suicide Squad though, I have a feeling it’s gonna pull a Deadpool.*

*In critical acclaim and overall success at least, because obviously it’s got a higher budget than DP, thus it won’t be as profitable.


#3

Dr Strange!!!
Because it’s Dr Strange!

And Ima let you finish but Dr Strange is the best Marvel Superhero of all time.
OF. ALL. TIME!




Plus: the ladies (and some of the guys) are gonna go see it because Benedict Cumberbatch.


#4

A toss-up between BvS and Civil War I think. BvS should make around a billion, and maybe a couple of hundred million more if word of mouth is good. Civil War probably similar - I think it won’t quite make Avengers numbers, but should get past a billion.


#5

It should be BvS, nothing else should come close.

The fact that there’s any doubt highlights the problems with their approach to this movie.

This should be doing Star Wars level of business, the characters are arguably the two biggest brands in existence - yet Finn, Rey & Poe will leave them in their trail.

The lack of buzz amoung the people I interact with daily is worrying. More people are talking about Game of Thrones coming back in April.

For that reason, I’m going for Cival War.


#6

I don’t know if non-comic people understand where BvS fits in. I think the idea that it’s the next chapter hasn’t sunk in. I know the comic book world is awash with opinions on it and what DC is doing but it’s not the same as what Marvel did.

Also I think Marvel has the edge in terms of casting decisions: RDJ, Hemsworth, Jackson, Johansson, Hiddleston, Pratt, Saldanha… These are recognisable and bankable names, so even if you’re not a comic book fan there’s a legacy there. I don’t know if Eisenberg, Cavill, Gadot and even Affleck can carry BvS. Will Smith can carry any pic because he’s Will Smith, so Suicide Squad will do well.

BvS is a gamble in my opinion. I’m not surprised that non-comic fans are rather ambivalent to it.


#7

I was about to answer this with total assuredness and then I hesitated when I looked at the list and realised it’s impossible to call. Batman Vs Superman has the three most iconic comic book characters of all time, but is projected to open just a little over Man of Steel and if it’s not good will have the same big drop off MOS had, a movie which hit around 650 and which Deadpool has already overtaken.

Strange and Suicide Squad I think will be excellent, but just less well known though Suicide Squad has the advantage of The Joker and Harley which could pull this from what should be 400 million to 800 million as Batman only makes money when The Joker is in his movies.

Apocalypse I think will be the highest quality picture of the year. The talent behind this one is just the most impressive, both in front and behind the camera and the story is amazing. Civil War I dunno. The trailers are OK, but Ultron really dented people’s interest in these characters and our two favourites (Hulk and Thor) are nowhere to be seen. Evans is very uncharismatic and there’s a bunch of other characters we’re not especially invested in on either side plus Tony seems to have lost his sense of humour. Iron Man 3 did 1.3 billion, but even though this has Iron Man it would be a brave poster who sees this hitting that kind of number as it looks VERY SERIOUS in a time when I think we want a little more upbeat.

My guesses (and Deadpool shows that everything is up for grabs) is as follows and my reasoning is that we all just want a good time right now…

Deadpool 800 (which without China is just astonishing)
X-Men 850 (because the scale of this will push it beyond even the last one)
Civil War 850
BVS 850 (Batman’s in it)
Suicide Squad 650 (The Joker’s in it)
Strange 500 (a good result, but unknown character)

Feel free to save and laugh at these numbers this Christmas when BVS makes 2 billion!!

MM


Justice League trailer chat-back
#8

Conservative but strong answers.

BvS and Civil War are the real conundrums for me. Id say youre spot on with the others.

Strange would hit similarly to Antman. SS matching Batman Begins and Apocalypse similar to Dofp.

I think Civil War will outdo Winter Soldier by maybe 100 mil. If its a really good installment then maybe Im3 numbers.

BvS no idea!!! Nothing would surprise me: total bomb or box office obsession. It does seem like WB really want it to hit at least a billion.


#9

If you’d asked me this time last year I’d have said BvS without missing a beat but as excited as I am about it my son (15) isn’t bothered whether he see’s it at the cinema though he keeps watching the Apocalypse trailer and my daughter (8) dropped the bomb yesterday of " Na I don’t want to see it. Wonder Woman doesn’t look fun… I’d see it if Supergirl was in it though ".
It should be BvS that brings in the most moolah but I’m going for Civil War as I think people are more certain of what they are getting when it comes to the characters even with the problems Age of Ultron had.


#10

Lots of differing answers and all of them seem plausible! :slight_smile: It’s going to be an interesting year.


#11

The weird thing with MCU films is they tend to have really serious trailers and then the films come with a much lighter tone. Iron Man 3 and Age of Ultron especially look very dark and grim affairs.


#12

I think Tony was fairly humourless in AoU in the end, though. There were some gags, but his character seemed to have lost some of the levity that made him so enjoyable in other movies (partly because the plot was all about his hubris - again - but on a much larger scale than ever before).

It would be nice if they recaptured some of the earlier spark in Civil War, but given the nature of the story (with him essentially acting as the antagonist in a Cap movie) it might be a tall order.


#13

Maybe but I meant in general rather than specifically Tony, the trailers of Marvel films (maybe GotG excepted) are usually a lot more serious than the end product. I mean check out the Iron Man 3 one, not a single wisecrack, just his life falling apart and complaining of insomnia.

That may be true of Civil War too, we’ll have to see.

I’d say that it seems a flawed marketing idea to do that but they make loads of money so what do I know? :wink:


#14

Cap 2 was tonally very grim and I can’t see two friends beating the Hell out of each other having much levity. I hope I’m wrong because if this ends like the comic people are going to be feeling a wee bit sad.

MM


#15

Yeah, I get that and I agree, it’s a regular pattern for the Marvel trailers at this point.

I do think though that in the films themselves there has been a bit of a move towards seriousness - not as pronounced as the trailers would have you believe, maybe, but certainly Age of Ultron wasn’t the fun ride that the first Avengers was. I don’t think audiences came out of it feeling that same buzz.

I think there is a risk that there’s a knock-on effect that hurts Civil War a little, but at the same time there’s still so much goodwill for Marvel - their movies are still seen as the gold standard of current superhero films, I think - that I can’t see the movie failing too badly. I think (like BvS) the billon-dollar mark is probably going to be seen as the threshold it has to pass to be considered a success, and I think it’ll do that.


#16

I think this is the EMPIRE phase. We’ve had STAR WARS. Now it’s time to throw rocks at our heroes. Then we’ll get to JEDI eventually. Or not. And that would be something cool too. Like a cliffhanger for 5 years and then a new generation of superhero movies built on this legacy. Yeah, I know it will never happen.

OTHER THOUGHTS:
I also think part of Marvel’s advantage is that we’ve been watching a story arc across the movies, even though at first glance they had nothing to do with each other. The end credit scenes, the little hat-tips to other characters coupled with the supporting TV shows… They’ve all been building towards some kind of climax.

I think part of F4’s issue was that it had nothing to do with the current MCU arc. X-Men has been steadily building (again with amazing casting) towards the climax of its story arc and again, we felt when watching the movies that there was always the potential for more to come.

Meanwhile, DC has changed out Batman and given us a new Superman, a collection of TV shows that have nothing to do with the movies, and it all seems a bit up in the air. And of course, while we all knew the success of Man Of Steel would dictate what happened next with DC movies, no-one outside of the comic book world cared. That’s why the movie had such a “final” ending. If it tanked, then it was a standalone flick. Now, they’ve got to sell in a sequel and I think a lot of people are struggling to care about it. Not once in the Superman flick were we shown that any of these characters existed in the same universe. I think convincing the viewing audience at large to care is too big an ask.


#17

I don’t think it was as good but I think the jokes just didn’t work as well rather than it being significantly more serious.


#18

Yeah, maybe so. There is a risk of the regular schtick simply ending up feeling tired at some point.

We’ll see if Civil War offers something fresh.


#19

I think the marketing will make or break Civil War - theres been a lukewarmish reception to BvS’ marketing wise which isn’t a good sign, but conversely Deadpool’s marketing struck a chord and sent the box office receipts skyrocketting.

With the other films mentioned, I feel there’s a dedicated audience number that will follow any decent big budget comic book film, and then the X-men have a dedicated audience on top of that, and Suicide Squad is probably comparable because of the interest in Harley Quinn and the Joker and that general ‘uncanny street level freak’ feel of the DCU that audiences seem to eat up.

Civil War has dedicated Avengers Audience and I can’t see how this does less 700,000 but whether it will extend beyond that with people speculating the characters have lost their sheen, I think, will depend on whether the marketing campaign reminds us why we like and are interested in these characters.


#20

I’ll agree that AoU did something bad… I mean, it’s a very well made movie for sure, but they just failed to do something “special”. I don’t think the problem was that it was “too serious” though, but rather that it was too bland. I would’ve gone with a much darker tone for it, or at least for Ultron, and I really think it would’ve been better, and not just because I thought of it, but because it would’ve given people a different aspect of the franchise, if not new per-se. But the point is that yeah, AoU left people with some kind of bad taste in their mouth, which could be problematic.

As soon as they announced Civil War, I thought it was a really bad idea as well (and I think that was even before AoU came out) because they would pit heroes vs heroes unnecessarily and that could sap the interest in some of those heroes for certain people… It’s basically a risky move because you can end up alienating your audience. It doesn’t help that nothing we’ve seen so far has looked engaging. The trailers for CW have been quite boring, unlike those for AoU which really gave a sense of “danger” to Ultron (even though what ended up happening in the movie was the contrary). If CW turns out to be more of the same as AoU was, it’s gonna be an uphill battle… I mean, it’s not like the MCU movies are gonna flop after that, but I don’t know if people will be as excited as before to go see them… and there’s gonna be A LOT more competition in the SH movies dptm. I do think it’ll go over the billion just because it’s an Avengers-lite movie (or that’s how they’re marketing it anyways).

*Oh btw, I don’t think DP will reach 800, not even close because it seems to have come to a halt at this point. I’m not seeing much progression anymore which makes sense if you consider it a “gimmick” movie, which I do. Still, if you take away DoFP’s China take, DP’s already done more, which makes it the most succesful X-verse movie to date… but granted, Apocalypse will open in China, so it could make more than DP’s ww take, although again, I have a hunch it won’t.

I don’t believe in “superhero fatigue” but I do believe in market saturation, and with 6 SH movies this year, competition could be fierce, specially between Civil War and Apocalypse which will be almost at the same time, and since those 2 look like the weakest of this year’s movies, they might hurt each other badly… particularly if CW leaves people with that same disapointed feeling as AoU did.

As for Suicide Squad, while the trailer was FANTASTIC, it might’ve been a mistake to release it sooo far out. By the time it’s near opening day, the buzz will have pretty much died off, and unless they can pull off another fantastic trailer (which they might), it would’ve been better to save the first one for later. But hey, Joker, Harley and Will Smith… that’s a fearsome trio. It’s gonna do well for sure… how well depends on the rest of the marketing campaign.

BvS, I think I said between 1.3 & 1.5B… I stand by that. Yes, even with the very uneven trailers and marketing.

So Uhm… to recap:

BvS: 1.3 - 1.5B

CW: 1 - 1.2B

DP: probably will flatten out at 720M or so… (which is already stratospheric)

Apocalypse: 700-750M at most, and I’m being super generous.

Suicide Squad: 650M sounds about right BUT I do have a gut feeling that this one could explode like DP did, and it’s not R-rated, and it will play in China, so it could go much much higher… I’m talking billion+ level of higher (hello Fast and Furious =P)

Doc Strange: No clue… need to see something first, but it should do at least as much as Ant-Man.