I’ll agree that AoU did something bad… I mean, it’s a very well made movie for sure, but they just failed to do something “special”. I don’t think the problem was that it was “too serious” though, but rather that it was too bland. I would’ve gone with a much darker tone for it, or at least for Ultron, and I really think it would’ve been better, and not just because I thought of it, but because it would’ve given people a different aspect of the franchise, if not new per-se. But the point is that yeah, AoU left people with some kind of bad taste in their mouth, which could be problematic.
As soon as they announced Civil War, I thought it was a really bad idea as well (and I think that was even before AoU came out) because they would pit heroes vs heroes unnecessarily and that could sap the interest in some of those heroes for certain people… It’s basically a risky move because you can end up alienating your audience. It doesn’t help that nothing we’ve seen so far has looked engaging. The trailers for CW have been quite boring, unlike those for AoU which really gave a sense of “danger” to Ultron (even though what ended up happening in the movie was the contrary). If CW turns out to be more of the same as AoU was, it’s gonna be an uphill battle… I mean, it’s not like the MCU movies are gonna flop after that, but I don’t know if people will be as excited as before to go see them… and there’s gonna be A LOT more competition in the SH movies dptm. I do think it’ll go over the billion just because it’s an Avengers-lite movie (or that’s how they’re marketing it anyways).
*Oh btw, I don’t think DP will reach 800, not even close because it seems to have come to a halt at this point. I’m not seeing much progression anymore which makes sense if you consider it a “gimmick” movie, which I do. Still, if you take away DoFP’s China take, DP’s already done more, which makes it the most succesful X-verse movie to date… but granted, Apocalypse will open in China, so it could make more than DP’s ww take, although again, I have a hunch it won’t.
I don’t believe in “superhero fatigue” but I do believe in market saturation, and with 6 SH movies this year, competition could be fierce, specially between Civil War and Apocalypse which will be almost at the same time, and since those 2 look like the weakest of this year’s movies, they might hurt each other badly… particularly if CW leaves people with that same disapointed feeling as AoU did.
As for Suicide Squad, while the trailer was FANTASTIC, it might’ve been a mistake to release it sooo far out. By the time it’s near opening day, the buzz will have pretty much died off, and unless they can pull off another fantastic trailer (which they might), it would’ve been better to save the first one for later. But hey, Joker, Harley and Will Smith… that’s a fearsome trio. It’s gonna do well for sure… how well depends on the rest of the marketing campaign.
BvS, I think I said between 1.3 & 1.5B… I stand by that. Yes, even with the very uneven trailers and marketing.
So Uhm… to recap:
BvS: 1.3 - 1.5B
CW: 1 - 1.2B
DP: probably will flatten out at 720M or so… (which is already stratospheric)
Apocalypse: 700-750M at most, and I’m being super generous.
Suicide Squad: 650M sounds about right BUT I do have a gut feeling that this one could explode like DP did, and it’s not R-rated, and it will play in China, so it could go much much higher… I’m talking billion+ level of higher (hello Fast and Furious =P)
Doc Strange: No clue… need to see something first, but it should do at least as much as Ant-Man.