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Superman Vs Batman projects $154 million domestic opening!


#1

A nice result, which means it should make it’s rumoured $450 million budget back, domestic and international probably sitting around the billion here, which is very close to a lot of MW board predictions.

MM


#2

This seems completely ridiculous to me. It’s out the end of next month. Tickets are barely on sale for it (if at all). They show no basis for their calculations beyond Twitter activity. How is this anything but utter guess work? Are we really now judging whether a film’s a success or not (financially) before it’s even come out?


#3

Interesting that the tracking is at this stage lower than either of the Avengers films or even Iron Man 3. I would have thought the heavy pre-marketing and the fact that so much of this movie is new to film audiences (a Batman and Superman team-up, a cinematic Wonder Woman, a putative Justice League) would have set the bar higher than IM3 or even Avengers 2.

Given the reported production and marketing costs (some estimates have even pegged the total as high as $500 million) it is looking like it is going to have to hit at least a billion-ish just to make its money back.

Which I think it will do, unless word-of-mouth is really terrible.


#4

Tracking can often give a good rough idea of performance, but it’s not an exact science, especially these days in the light of unpredictable social-media effects.

This is an interesting article about how well (or not) pre-release tracking predicted the fortunes of some of the big movies in 2015:

[QUOTE]
A slew of films opened to a third or half of what prerelease tracking suggested despite pricey marketing campaigns. Jurassic World, on the other hand, flew clear past domestic opening-weekend forecasts of $125 million. The lack of predictability can strain a studio’s relationship with talent and prompt internal finger-pointing as to what went wrong.

Tracking has become increasingly unreliable during the age of social media, when poor reviews and buzz can derail even the most carefully calculated marketing campaign. But insiders say the problem has reached a tipping point. “This was a summer completely designed by reviews and word-of-mouth,” says Megan Colligan, Paramount’s president of worldwide distribution and marketing. “I would actually hear people in the grocery store talking about Rotten Tomatoes scores.”

Indeed, many titles that failed to reach tracking projections had poor scores on review-aggregation sites. Paramount and Skydance’s Terminator: Genisys was expected to clear $55 million during the five-day July 4 holiday; instead, Genisys, with a 26 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes, opened to a disappointing $42.5 million. Warners was blindsided repeatedly as Entourage, Magic Mike XXL, Vacation, The Man From U.N.C.L.E. and We Are Your Friends came in well behind tracking. None was particularly well received. Fox’s Fantastic Four, savaged by reviews and its director’s own tweet, lagged far behind initial tracking.

The opposite was true for movies with strong marks on Rotten Tomatoes, including Trainwreck (85 percent “fresh”), Straight Outta Compton (90 percent) and Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation (93 percent). Each came in well ahead of projections. Universal and Paramount promoted Rotten Tomatoes scores rather than individual critics in ads for Trainwreck and Rogue, respectively, a Hollywood first. “There is a point where traditional tracking can’t tell you everything anymore because of word-of-mouth,” says Universal domestic distribution chief Nicholas Carpou. Adds Fox domestic distribution head Chris Aronson: “We’re seeing these wide swings because of immediacy of social media. Maybe we need to re-examine the methodology.”

The main authority in tracking remains the National Research Group. MarketCast is another trusted firm, but on a smaller scale. (Both declined comment.) The two companies’ main focus is testing marketing materials months and weeks out, although it is tracking that generates the headlines. NRG and MarketCast have changed their process during recent years, using the web and mobile phones to survey consumers rather than land lines. Now, facing pressure from studios, they intend to make more tweaks. For example, both survey only avid moviegoers, defined as those who attend six to eight films a year. But casual moviegoers could be more important than previously thought. “That’s where the surprises come in, like Jurassic World,” says a studio research executive. NRG is considering incorporating reviews into its final prerelease surveys.

“The inherent flaw with tracking is that they are using it to come up with a number to satisfy this need studios have to guesstimate what a movie will open to, but the unpredictability of the social conversation can change your fortunes,” says Paul Dergarabedian of Rentrak, which in 2013 launched the social listening service PreAct, which can monitor a film a year out.

The hard lesson of the summer is that neither tracking, testing marketing materials nor social listening can capture word-of-mouth on opening night. Says Disney distribution chief Dave Hollis, “You don’t have the luxury anymore of bad buzz not being immediately known.”[/quote]


#5

I think itll make it’s money back.

But, for Warners, they won’t be looking at it that way.

If it cracks a billion, then that’s a strong indication that audiences will follow the adventures of the Justice league through their solo titles and the like - (all of which are budgeted more conservatively – even the JL films, IIRC).

If it fails to crack a bil, I expect there’ll be a lot of cancellations.


#6

IM3 and Avengers 2 reaped the rewards of Avengers 1 and several years of mainly good movies. DC’s got Batman for sure, but now 4 years ago. MOS was divisive and maybe just broke even. The other characters haven’t had a cinematic following.

I really hope this is good. If it’s good word of mouth will carry that opening weekend to a cool billion. Any moans from the interwebs and this could be a big drop off. What slightly worries me is that as much as that most recent trailer was pretty good it was nowhere near as good as that final MOS trailer…

MM


#7

I’m sure the Ben Affleck fans alone are enough to push this over $1bn. Right? Don’t you agree? Anyone?!


#8

One of the things about Man of Steel that we can agree on is that it was divisive. When you’re spending that sort of money on a movie, and trying to bring in a general audience for repeated viewings, you don’t really want to be going for divisive, do you? You’re probably going to want to be as inviting as possible.


#9

It’s also, as has been mentioned here, a much darker/adult toned universe than the Marvels, Star Wars and Avatars of the world.

That’s probably about a quarter of the audience that it can’t claim over it’s competitors.

I reckon the audience that made the Dark Knight it’s money will probably be the exact audience that turns out to see this - give or take a few gains or losses. It’ll be repeat viewings that pushes this into success territory or not.


#10

Nolan’s movies made money because they were generally very well reviewed. That’s the big x-factor here. I really hope this finds a huge audience because I love the characters, but I’m worried as my 4 year old is obsessed with all three main heroes. She watches them every day. But this is too scary for her whereas Avengers she could watch no probs.

MM


#11

I think it’s weird that it ended up this way.

The marvel heroes were created to be more ‘adult’, whereas the DC characters always generally had more all-ages appeal. In the film world, it’s turned out to be the reverse.

I think it’s just a product of circumstance though – DC didn’t really have that much of a choice - their most popular product was the dark Batman; the least popular the cartoonish Green Lantern - they probably wanted to make the safe bet.


#13

[quote=“Mark_Millar, post:10, topic:4926”]
Nolan’s movies made money because they were generally very well reviewed. That’s the big x-factor here.
[/quote]Yeah, and in a sense I guess the likes of IM3 and Age of Ultron were more critic-proof because people knew the Marvel formula by that point, and knew whether they wanted more of the same. Reviews might make more of a difference for BvS.


#14

I didn’t plan on seeing this in the theater until the teaser, so at least 3 more ticket sales are guaranteed! Its’ already getting closer to $1B! :wink:


#15

I think I’ve mentioned this before but I follow a lot of sports fans on twitter and the last round of TV advertisements during the NFL playoffs haven’t played well with the non-geek crowd. They’re very weird—just little scene snippets and not actual trailers, and each one looks like it’s for a different movie.

I think I am going to like this movie quite a lot, but I don’t think it is going to be the hit that they’re hoping for.

I think the bad will is going to spill over to Civil War as well. It’s in 3 months and they didn’t even bother putting an ad up during the NFL playoffs.


#16

Civil War has a problem in that it’s two heroes facing off. By the time May comes around people will have seen that and very possibly not enjoyed it. That can’t be good.

Also CW looks a bit bleak and serious and in the gleaming world that is 2016 I dunno if that’s the zeitgeist.

MM


#17

I have wondered about this. I think Marvel will be hoping the reception for BvS is at least pretty good if not great, because otherwise it’s possible it will put people off the hero-vs-hero concept and damage CW.

I think there’s enough difference between the two approaches that they will be seen as sufficiently distinct though. And I think audiences still have quite a lot of affection for the Marvel characters (despite the perceived disappointment of Age of Ultron).

As for CW being too serious, I’m not sure that will be a problem. Winter Soldier was arguably Marvel’s most serious movie so far, played more straight than any of the others, and it turned out to be one of the studio’s best (and a big step up from the first Cap movie). With the Russos back for this film I feel confident in them pulling off the same mix of serious subject-matter and entertaining superheroics.


#18

Serious Iron Man in Avengers 2 was a huge misstep though. Also, Cap 2 was great, but it made 750 or something. I think we need a good time here. Good time superhero movies are the only ones I’m interested in at the moment and I can’t be alone. Way more interested in Guardians 2 than any of the above pictures.

MM


#19

Only Warner Bros know what their targets are and what the figures need to be in order to open the floodgates for all the announced, but not yet made, films on their schedule.

I’m totally fascinated how this pans out.

‘Man of Steel’ was a misfire for me but it was a hit, and I am excited to see what Snyder does with Wonder Woman and Batman, two characters that (I feel) are more his kind of thing.

I’m not expecting a great movie, but I am expecting a movie with some greatness in it.

Anecdotally, the people I talk to are all interested enough to go see ‘BvS’, but they’re not actually champing at the bit for it. It’s just another big film that there planning to see on the big screen.

Hopefully that’s enough for Warners.


#20

There is only 11 months in between Ultron and Civil War, 6 months between the Ultron DVD release and Civil War. The Falcon character will be in 3 movies in 11 months, and he’s not even very well developed.

I’m not suggesting “superhero burnout” but you do have to go away for a little bit and then come back to keep people excited.


#21

Glad I skipped IM3 and AoU, I’m still excited to see Civil War and BvS. :wink: