I not going to use up many tissues weeping for their fiscal losses.
It’s not about Solo, it’s that one of their brands (and they only have a few) might be a toxic asset and worth a fraction of what they thought. So it’s like a Honda Accord is no longer selling - Honda have other cars but it’s a big dent all the same. Now Disney finds itself with only Marvel for boys, and it really needs something else in case kids get fed up with Marvel.
I’d still buy Disney stock though, once they start streaming properly the company should double in value. I’m sure Murdoch knows that too which is why he wants to deal with them.
Solo is inarguably a box office failure, but there’s not enough evidence to call Star Wars a toxic asset (even with the qualifier of “might be”) at this point. If Episode IX underperforms, sure. But I can’t imagine Disney will have much in the way of regrets if that film lands in the 1.5 - 2 billion dollar range.
But what comes after IX?
That’s most likely what Disney is concerned about. I don’t think anybody is expecting IX to bomb, but they’re probably nervous about how to proceed. Will an Obi-Wan or Boba Fett movie crash and burn at the box office like Solo? Are audiences only interested in numbered installments? If so, then what? Will Episode X be another remake of ANH? Are we looking at a perpetual cycle of Republic falls, Empire Rises, A New Hope emerges, Jedis Return, Empire is defeated, New Republic falls, New Empire rises, A New New Hope emerges…
Disney want a stable, long term return on their investment. They want to make money from all the licensing options available to them.
Long term planning needs a realistic and open reaction to what happens each time they launch a new variation on the products. ‘Solo’ didn’t work, but ‘Rogue One’ did, so they’re reassessing the spin off movies.
If Star Wars won’t support two or three films a year then they’ll make one a year, and continue to reap the benefits of the brand in all their other areas, like games, TV, theme parks, merchandising and cruise ship holidays.
Buying Lucasfilm was a very good decision, and if they had a time machine I’ve no doubt they’d do it again, and be happy with what they paid for it.
Disney have some of the smartest people on the planet on staff. They meticulously plan out every aspect of the company and pay attention to everything. They’re not the kind of company to just make a movie and see how people respond. Right now they’re working on toys to be released 18 months for now, and gearing up for a theme park that was planned 4 years ago. Right now they need to take significant risk and basically decide now where they think they’ll be in 2-5 more years.
The management of the film division has been a disaster. Changing directors, reshoots, divisive movies and reshoots. There’s got to be internal changes there. But I don’t see them giving up on Star Wars, I think they need a fix and the best option is to give fans more of what they want.
On top of that though, I’d assume Disney are looking into acquiring a new property for young boys. Maybe they’ll get something from Fox, maybe they’ll buy something else. I think they thought they were full already with Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar and Disney live action, but I think they need a new franchise. It’ll be interesting to see what they go after.
So, Groundhog Day a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away …
For right now, they should keep quiet about that. Ep IX will either make the ST work to a new level for some, while damning it to ever lower levels of hell for others. I think it has far greater potential to be even more divisive than TLJ, even with Abrams at the helm. That film has an incredible amount to do and severe odds against it.
Right now Disney should only have one plan: Make Episode IX work.
It’s a tough situation. Some people say that a Kenobi movie would’ve been a better choice than Solo, but it’s just as likely Lucasfilm would’ve messed that up, too. They probably would still mess it up if they made next year.
I think it may be too much to ask the present production leadership to completely reverse the current trend with the next movie they make. They might make a good start if they do the best they can, but reversing the damage just seems unlikely.
I actually think Warner Bros is in a better position with the DC heroes than Disney is with Star Wars.
There’s two big questions they need to answer:
What, exactly, caused the damage?
What parts can they change and what are they stuck with?
I’m not sure many people can answer those two questions properly. It’s a very small needle of opportunity that they have with Episode 9.
I don’t really see IX working without retconning the living shit out of TLJ… that thing did so much damage to the established mythology that I don’t know if it’s possible to pull it back without throwing it down the memory hole.
Luke’s character was assassinated, it reset the central Empire-Rebellion conflict despite being the next-to-last entry in the saga, the Force now seems to randomly hand out super powers, and instead of building on TFA, Johnson just threw everything out and decided to make some kind of “personal vision” and squandered the penultimate installment of the saga.
Episode IX should be about defeating the First Order and Rey achieving her personal destiny.
If they do that and do it well, they’re fine.
Everyone and everything else should be built around that. The original trilogy was Luke’s story, the prequels were Anakin’s and this is about Rey.
If we’re going to get into this, let’s move it to the Star Wars thread please?
I think this is what has surprised me the most with the execution of the SW properties, especially the numbered movies. There did not seem to be a coherent plan with them. They appear to be making it up as they go along. You would think after the unprecedented success of the Marvel properties, Disney would have had plan in place for each numbered movie and given those directors a list of bullet points they had to hit.
It feels like Disney either rushed into this or was possibly a bit too hands off with the Lucasfilm folks thinking they had this under control.
What properties are currently out there are available for acquisition? With Fox, they’ll get X-Men and Fantastic Four which could give the Marvel properties a much needed refresh in a few years.
Is there a toy line or series of books or old TV show that that is popular and would be highly exploitable? What else does Fox have that would be attractive to young boys?
But… the Marvel movies have been made up as they went along, aside from “Oh hey, we’re gonna do Infinity Gauntlet eventually”
I think they have had an overarching plan for a while. Things get slipped into various movies to serve the greater story.
Yes, but the plan was “do infinity Gauntlet at some point, and seed the infinity gems into a few of the movies”, it was a very loose idea. Plotting stuff out with any level of detail is very rare in cinema, partially because it locks you in in a way that filmmakers don’t like.
Star Wars has always been made up as it went along, it still is.
They didn’t have to be detailed out to the Nth degree. Some plot points that need to be included in each movie. That was the plan.
Yeah, Star Wars has been a somewhat seat-of-your-pants operation in the past which worked, that is what has hurt it this time. Times have changed and the series needed a bit more forethought than we seem to have gotten. Disney knew they were going to make three numeral movies unless the Ep 7 had bombed beyond belief. they could have planned better.
Well to be fair here we’re talking about not knowing who Rey’s parents were, who Snoke was and so on. They very things introduced as mysteries in the first movie had no resolution planned. That’s very silly.
I’m sure they have plans for 3-4 different ideas, but launching a new franchise is hard. If it hasn’t been successful already it’s hard to make it successful with a reboot. I’d guess they’ll take something from the 90’s and make it new.
Honestly their best bet may be X Men, with a whole new set of movies inspired by the 90’s cartoon.
Fox has a lot. Aliens, Predator and Avatar and I think they still have the Planet of the Apes movies, right? X-Files and Buffy were Fox properties, too, right? Kingsman might be Fox and there are a whole bunch of original Fox television shows that are big hits as well.
Heck, I think The Fly was Fox. I could see a reboot of that doing well.
I don’t accept that SOLO was a stupid idea; I think it had the potential to be a great film that brought satisfaction to old fans and new fans alike, no more (or less) stupid than a Boba Fett or Obi-Wan film.
That being said, Disney took for granted that this would be a successful film, and made only a half-hearted effort to insure that it would be the blockbuster they expected. From thoughtless scheduling, to lackluster early print ads and promotional material, to unexciting trailers, they took countless mis-steps in marketing SOLO for success.