The ITER project in France will, unless the vast majority of physicists are wrong, produce a fusion reactor with at least a Q of 10.
True, it will take some years, decades even, before an optimal design is realised for commercial reactors.
However, that is based on He3 NOT being available i.e no need for a Moon base.
Recoverable He3 would only be a bonus not a necessity.
He3 has certain theoretical advantages namely reducing the decay time to safety of decommissioned reactors to around 10 years versus 100 years for the planned fusion fuel. It also offers the possibility of direct generation of electricity rather than an intermediary thermal stage.
There remains some engineering choices on the type of blanket material but that is not a potential show stopper, fusion is going to happen unless some equally productive and environmentally friendly alternative manifests itself first, that is always possible.
But fusion is not a pipe dream, it is happening as we speak.
Here is a Ted talk on it:
Here is a vid that gives an indication of progress to date.
Of course ITER is ridiculously expensive but that is because it has been designed to be festooned with a huge amount of instrumentation and configurability. Its job is to establish the optimal design for a prototype reactor.
Future reactors stemming from ITER will be at least an order of magnitude less expensive to build.
And to be honest, with fossil fuels and fissile fuels running out frankly the only alternative to a renewables only future i.e. a much reduced energy to demand ratio fusion represents the only promise of energy supply meeting demand.
If ITER does not meet its objectives, physicists will not just be dismayed they will be shocked.