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Oscars and Other Movie Awards


#993

My guess is Roma will win Best Picture, with Green Book as my backup if voters are turned off by the Spanish language and the Netflix angle.

It feels like a weirdly wide open field though, and vote-splitting could make something unusual rise to the top. I might even guess Black Panther (assuming it is nominated), although it feels like it came out a million years ago now.


#994

When are the nominees out?


#995

Didn’t like either A Star Is Born before, and the trailers for this one make me cringe. (Note Kristofferson is one of my favorite people.) I’m guessing Bohemian Rhapsody is getting votes more for Malik’s performance and pure love of Queen, as from the majority I’ve heard the film itself is crap. Guess it’s better crap than ASIB. (Nothing personal, I just dislike blandpop.)


#996

Tomorrow I think.


#997

What the Academy is, ultimately, is protective of its own legacy, the kinds of movies it’s always loved. I don’t think Green Book is strong enough to contend with Moonlight, a movie that won Best Picture two years ago and covered more bases. Green Book can be nominated, but it won’t win. Roma, if the Academy thinks it achieved enough of a statement, could win, but the Academy above all, again, is circular in its logic, and tends toward traditional. You had Shape of Water last year, and Birdman, which was its concession to superheroes but moreso filmmaking flare, but then you also have stuff like The Artist, which was an unabashed love letter, and Spotlight, which was the Academy patting itself on the back for relevance. What is Roma’s relevance? I wouldn’t be surprised for Vice to win.


#998

I think that it will be really interesting if it is nominated. I don’t expect it to be. Ruled out by not being given a proper theatrical release.

That is surely impossible.

This version is more blues rock than that:

And when it came to the soundtrack, he, along with Gaga and Lukas Nelson (frontman and bandleader of Promise of the Real, and Willie Nelson’s son), were being equally ambitious. They enlisted a murderer’s row of favorite producers and songwriters like Mark Ronson, Dave Cobb, Lori McKenna, Jason Isbell, Natalie Hemby, Hillary Lindsey, and more, to collaborate.

Surely not? While I liked the movie, I don’t think that it’s as good as The Big Short, and that was never going to win Best Picture anyway.


#999

I think it might not be nominated because it could end up in Foreign Language instead, but it was given a proper release, albeit a very limited one, and has grossed a few million dollars. It screened briefly where I live which is not a big city at all.

Also, Mudbound was nominated for a few Oscars last year; it was a Netflix film that got a much smaller release.


#1000

The thing about Mudbound is that it wasn’t nominated for Best Picture, and they only had nine nominations that year so theoretically could have given it a slot.
I think that nominating a Netflix movie for Best Picture would be a massive concession.


#1001

Kevin Hart has about four times the number of twitter followers than the entire population of gay people in America. This criticism will not hurt or turn people away from him.

However, it won’t help LGBT political rights or tolerance either. The appearance from the culturally conservative majority of Americans is that Hart is being attacked by social justice warriors that do not simply want to call out innate prejudice in the society, but are actively scouring every popular celebrity’s past for anything that will allow them to attack traditional values by proxy.

The absurd but active fear in the country is that politically active elite groups are dedicated to demeaning and destroying traditional American values to gain a political advantage over the majority of citizens who will be cowed into silence and assent by the continued thought police persecution of notable people in entertainment and politics.

I believe Hart will receive an not entirely welcome career boost from people who agree with his past comments and want his continued success to represent a “resistance” to aggressive social activism.

Now, if this were a politically even playing field, these tactics might have some benefit promoting the political and economic influence and civil rights of underprivileged and targeted groups of people. However, politically my fear is founded in that the “group” that feels targeted and insulted by these sorts of exposures is actually larger and more influential than all the other groups put together.

I think is a large part of why Trump is in office, weathers every embarrassment thrown at him and politicians who align themselves with Trump dominate state and local races across the country.


#1002

It’s a movie about a compromised president. You’re not going to tell me that Hollywood hasn’t been helping lead the charge against Trump, and would love to celebrate a movie like Vice. Years from now there will be a Russian investigation movie, you can be assured of that. But the Academy might settle for Vice.


#1003

By that logic, The Post would have won last year?


#1004

But The Post was also competing against all of Spielberg’s previous work. Does anyone think that was among his best?


#1005

https://deadline.com/2019/01/oscar-nominations-2019-academy-award-nominees-list-1202538943/>

Best Picture

Black Panther
Kevin Feige, Producer

BlacKkKlansman
Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee, Producers

Bohemian Rhapsody
Graham King, Producer

The Favourite
Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos, Producers

Green Book
Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga, Producers

Roma
Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón, Producers

A Star Is Born
Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor, Producers

Vice
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers

Actress in a Leading Role

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Actor in a Leading Role

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Directing

BlacKkKlansman
Spike Lee

Cold War
Paweł Pawlikowski

The Favourite
Yorgos Lanthimos

Roma
Alfonso Cuarón

Vice
Adam McKay

Actor in a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams, Vice

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen

BlacKkKlansman
Written by Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee

Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Screenplay by Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty

If Beale Street Could Talk
Written for the screen by Barry Jenkins

A Star Is Born
Screenplay by Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters

Original Screenplay

The Favourite
Written by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara

First Reformed
Written by Paul Schrader

Green Book
Written by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly

Roma
Written by Alfonso Cuarón

Vice
Written by Adam McKay

Cinematography

Cold War
Łukasz Żal

The Favourite
Robbie Ryan

Never Look Away
Caleb Deschanel

Roma
Alfonso Cuarón

A Star Is Born
Matthew Libatique

Production Design

Black Panther
Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Jay Hart

The Favourite
Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton

First Man
Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

Mary Poppins Returns
Production Design: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim

Roma
Production Design: Eugenio Caballero; Set Decoration: Bárbara Enríquez

Costume Design

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mary Zophres

Black Panther
Ruth Carter

The Favourite
Sandy Powell

Mary Poppins Returns
Sandy Powell

Mary Queen of Scots
Alexandra Byrne

Film Editing

BlacKkKlansman
Barry Alexander Brown

Bohemian Rhapsody
John Ottman

The Favourite
Yorgos Mavropsaridis

Green Book
Patrick J. Don Vito

Vice
Hank Corwin

Foreign Language Film

Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

Documentary Feature

Free Solo
Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Evan Hayes and Shannon Dill

Hale County This Morning, This Evening
RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes and Su Kim

Minding the Gap
Bing Liu and Diane Quon

Of Fathers and Sons
Talal Derki, Ansgar Frerich, Eva Kemme and Tobias N. Siebert

RBG
Betsy West and Julie Cohen

Documentary Short Subject

Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End Of Sentence

Animated Feature Film

Incredibles 2
Brad Bird, John Walker and Nicole Paradis Grindle

Isle of Dogs
Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson

Mirai
Mamoru Hosoda and Yuichiro Saito

Ralph Breaks the Internet
Rich Moore, Phil Johnston and Clark Spencer

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller

Animated Short Film

Animal Behaviour
Alison Snowden and David Fine

Bao
Domee Shi and Becky Neiman-Cobb

Late Afternoon
Louise Bagnall and Nuria González Blanco

One Small Step
Andrew Chesworth and Bobby Pontillas

Weekends
Trevor Jimenez

Live Action Short Film

Detainment
Vincent Lambe and Darren Mahon

Fauve
Jeremy Comte and Maria Gracia Turgeon

Marguerite
Marianne Farley and Marie-Hélène Panisset

Mother
Rodrigo Sorogoyen and María del Puy Alvarado

Skin
Guy Nattiv and Jaime Ray Newman

Original Score

Black Panther
Ludwig Goransson

BlacKkKlansman
Terence Blanchard

If Beale Street Could Talk
Nicholas Britell

Isle of Dogs
Alexandre Desplat

Mary Poppins Returns
Marc Shaiman

Original Song

“All The Stars” from Black Panther
Music by Mark Spears, Kendrick Lamar Duckworth and Anthony Tiffith; Lyric by Kendrick Lamar Duckworth, Anthony Tiffith and Solana Rowe

“I’ll Fight” from RBG
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns
Music by Marc Shaiman; Lyric by Scott Wittman and Marc Shaiman

“Shallow” from A Star Is Born
Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt

“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Music and Lyric by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War
Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick

Christopher Robin
Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould

First Man
Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm

Ready Player One
Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk

Solo: A Star Wars Story
Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy

Makeup and Hairstyling

Border
Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer

Mary Queen of Scots
Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks

Vice
Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia DeHaney

Sound Editing

Black Panther
Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker

Bohemian Rhapsody
John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone

First Man
Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan

A Quiet Place
Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl

Roma
Sergio Díaz and Skip Lievsay

Sound Mixing

Black Panther
Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin

Bohemian Rhapsody
Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali

First Man
Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis

Roma
Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio García

A Star Is Born
Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow


#1006

Best Picture Nominees, Ranked:

  1. The Favourite
  2. Roma
  3. Black Panther
  4. A Star Is Born
  5. BlacKkKlansman
  6. Green Book
  7. Bohemian Rhapsody
  8. Vice

I saw Vice last night. I love most of Adam McKay’s other movies, and at least like all of them, but this was awful. It feels like they had eight hours of full scenes, and then cut it up so that each scene was just 30 seconds long. It’s not surprising that they filmed a musical number which was cut. It tries to do far too much, while never giving all that much insight into Cheney other than him being a terrible person.

I’m glad I was spoiled on the whole thing with the framing device, or my eyes would have rolled out of my head. Just embarrassingly poor.


#1007

Theoretically, Roma could win Best Picture but lose Foreign Language Film. I know that it’s more likely the opposite happens, but how strange would that be?


#1008

I’d love Shoplifters to win Foreign Language. It’s a shame Burning missed out, but it’s a tough category.


#1009

Favorite, Roma and Star is Born feel like the only possible winners from that list.

Black Panther getting a nomination is a bit crazy.


#1010

Sure, why not…


#1011

It would break all the laws of set algebra and number theory, thereby leading to the inevitable end of our understanding of the universe, nay the end of the very universe itself.

That’s how strange.


#1012

Yeah, that feels odd. It was a decent film but nowhere near Best Picture level.

This strikes me as pandering to show Oscar not so white.