I don't think most people run the numbers, I think they go with their gut; which basically means they believe what they want to believe.
If they like the person they want to believe they're innocent, if the reverse is true then they presume guilt.
Even if the cases had gone to court, a lot of people would accept or reject the eventual decision based on their feelings about those involved and the nature of the allegations.
I'm in the position of not really knowing that much about Casey Affleck, I've seen him in films a few times but not enough to be a fan.
So I really don't know where the truth is here and my gut has no opinion ether.