I hope I'll get to see Manchester by the Sea in a theatre; I don't think it's been out in Germany yet.
You know I don't have the problems with La La Land that you do, and I'd be perfectly fine with it winning best movie - there's been far worse picks over the years. But let's be honest here, it's also just the kind of movie that Hollywood loves to give Oscars to. It's about Hollywood, it takes place in LA, it's about the importance of art and movies and storytelling... you can already see the Academy members salivating.
Whereas they don't have a great history of giving awards to low-key dramas like Manchester by the Sea, unfortunately. I think the last time they did, that was Million Dollar Baby.
It's an interesting race this year, though. Very diverse in genre, and a lot of good movies.