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Marvel Studios - 2016-2019 guesses!


#1

It’s a very interesting time for the Marvel movies. I really enjoyed Ant-Man and am shocked that it’s still stubbornly down around $330 mill. Does it have many other territories to open in? I’d have thought this would have cracked 400 million quite comfortably.

What’s your guesses for box office grosses for the 2016-2019 line-up?

MM


#2

Yes the 3 big Asian markets China, Japan and South Korea get it in September so there’ll be a late boost there.


#3

‘Civil War’ will be huge. The trailers etc. would have to be abominable for it to do badly.

‘Doctor Strange’ hasn’t even started filming yet, but I’m intrigued with where they go with the character? I think it’ll push a few boundries, but not too much. We know Marvel are managing their films quite closely.

I’m not expecting a huge hit, but if the quantum/magical/whatever world grabs people then who knows?

My big question is how much fun will it be? They could get very serious with it, but I’m hoping for a grand show.

‘Black Panther’ I have hopes for. I like their choice of lead actor, now they need to give him something to do.


#4

Yeah. I think, and this is something that has been talked about over the on the Marvel Films thread, that Marvel have been working a formula for the last couple of years. But they have also been encouraging people to see every movie as an integral part of the MCU and thus a “must see”. So they need to start breaking out of their formula and surprising people if they are going to succeed over the next 5 year.

That said, they have been doing fine without my advice for the last number of years. I’m sure that they will continue to do perfectly well. :smiley:


#5

Hopefully with China, Japan & SK it should crack the 400…

As for the rest… hard to know… Civil War will do the best from here to Infinity War… Thor 3 should do about the same as 2, maybe even a little less since he won’t be in CW (presumably) and last movie wasn’t well regarded, so it’s got that battle to overcome. Guardians 2 should do VERY well… hopefully it’ll crack the billion… Not sure about that, but why not? It got a pretty big debut, so doing a 300 extra mil shouldn’t be impossible… I hope James Gunn goes bat-shit crazy with the sequel and it shows in the trailers… it should be the most fun movie in theaters of that year and they should let people know about it.

The rest of those… wow hard to say. Doc Strange has A LOT of potential, but it’ll all depend how they play it, and of course the trailers and all that. Hopefully they’ve come up with a great pitch for the movie but it could be lame as well… At any rate it’s got a good cast so it should do well enough… I’d be surprised if it doesn’t hit the 500 (as long as it doesn’t look like utter crap, of course).

Black Panther might do well because of the “novelty” and the character should get a boost from CW. Don’t know how well but man, we’re in deep C-list territory here so the way I see it is that as long as they crack 400 mil it’s already pretty good. Same goes for Capt. Marvel and the Inhumans… those last two are gonna be a hard sell I reckon, but IIRC they’ll be out in between IW parts 1 and 2, so that might give them a break.

MCU-integrated Spider-man is the big question here… Will people bother with a 3rd reboot? I mean, as much as I don’t believe there’s SH fatigue, I do believe there might be “Spider-man origin movie fatigue” =P

It’ll be interesting to see if it even manages to out-perform both Amazings… I hope for Sony it does, otherwise that deal with Marvel/Disney might be short-lived. But then again, I suppose part of the deal is putting some of the MCU characters in the movie… the question is who? The most obvious is RDJ, but I don’t know if he’s up for it… He would certainly do the trick of pushing it up though…


#6

Feige has made it clear that the new Spidey movie won’t be an origin story.


#7

What, so we’re just supposed to guess how he got he amazing, mysterious powers?


#8

Apparently they’re just going to say a wizard did it.


#9

Don’t worry, to make up for it they are doing a 13 hour Netflix show detailing Uncle Ben’s death.


#10

Episode 1: The Origin Of Uncle Ben

In this episode, Ben’s brother has sex with his wife.


#11

Yeah, I know, but how do you convey that message to the general audiences? Those who, with a new younger actor, will logically assume it’s just another reboot thus another origin story?

I don’t know how they could handle that issue… short of spelling it out in huge letters in the trailer “THIS IS NOT ANOTHER ORIGIN STORY!!!” =P


#12

I’d just do a quick montage of the main beats in the opening, like Incredible Hulk did.


#13

Intrigued nobody’s made a stab at these box office grosses :smile:

MM


#14

‘Civil War’ is $1bn globally, more if they sell it right.

Anything else is pure guesswork until we see something from them, which is tricky since they’re not even in prooduction yet. :slight_smile:


#15

Disney are probably aiming for 800-1 billion domestic per year for Marvel (probably the same for Star Wars).

Global a little harder to quantify with emerging markets maybe 1.5 to 2 bill (in Avengers years).

With that said, I would expect each year they’d want to have a big event hit which nets them 700-1 bil and a smaller character film which nets them 400-600.

Next year, let’s say 850 for Cap and 450 for Strange.

2017 - 800 for GotG 2
750 for Spidey (Marvel would then probably net 300)
600 for Thor 3.

2018 - Avengers 3 - 1.3 Bill
Black Panther - 700
Captain Marvel 450

2019 - Avengers 3 - 1.5 bill.
Inhumans 500


#17

Oh, go on then. Worldwide estimates:

2016:
Captain America - Civil War: US$1.1bn (if they market it right)
Dr Strange: US$450m

2017:
Guardians of the Galaxy 2: US$1bn
Spider-Man: US$700m
Thor - Ragnarok: US$550m

2018:
Black Panther: US$400m
Avengers - Infinity War Part One: US$1.3bn
Captain Marvel: US$400-500m (depending on casting)

2019:
Avengers - Infinity War Part Two: US$1.6bn
Inhumans: US$400m
Ant-Man & The Wasp: US$500m :wink:


#18

1.4 billion for anything with RDJ or Chris Pratt
1 billion for Spidey
800 million for Thor
400 million for Strange, Captain Marvel, Inhumans, Black Panther

The biggest chances of bombing: Strange, Captain Marvel.

2017 could be an interesting year and a bigger one financially than Infinity War. Guardians will crush, as the first one left you wanting more and Pratt became a mega-mega-mega star with Jurassic. I can see Marvel doing Spidey right, and I think he’s a billion-dollar property when done right. Thor will have 2 years off between movies (and Loki more like 5) which is enough time to actually miss them, and they’re likeable. But will the film be too dark? Maybe. If not Marvel could have three billion dollar movies that year.


#19

Are re-runs of ‘Parks and Recreation’ getting record breaking viewing figures?

I’m still holding off before I say Pratt’s a big star. He’s a good looking, talented and funny actor but he’s been in two huge films. Put him in a smaller movie and see what it does.


#20

I think Black Panther will be the one that surprises everyone with how well it does. The TV series Empire did remarkably well with each episode showing gains and Straight Outta Compton beating expectations. I think there is a desire to see a strong black character and BP may be it.


#21

Before the Lego Movie and GotG in 2014 and Jurassic World this year, he was in ‘Her’, ‘Delivery Man’ and ‘Movie 43’ in 2013, which all did ok but didn’t set the world alight. It would be interesting to see him star in a smaller movie again to see if his increased star power proves a bigger draw.