There are many reasons why I think it will fall short of some of the loftier expectations but the biggest one is that it’s part one of a two-part story. People keep saying this is what Marvel has been building to, when that strikes me as the 2019 film. The Avengers made its money because it had a rousing and satisfying finale. If this one ends on a bum note (insert Kingsman joke) like many of us think, with essentially a “to be continued” message, then I can’t picture it making the money people are suggesting.
What I think will happen:
- It has a massive, potentially record breaking, opening weekend.
- It tails off faster than Marvel’s other big hits, with numbers that ultimately look like The Last Jedi’s.
- It does very robust Blu Ray and VOD sales
- The following film, billed as the final film for RDJ and a few other key players, and perhaps an introduction to the Fox characters, is the one that does the business that pushes $2 billion (though I don’t think it gets there).