Wonder Woman or Justice?
In related superhero news, The Walt Disney Studios crossed $2B at the 2018 global box office this weekend, tipped over the mark by Black Panther and its $1.3B. Ryan Coogler’s phenom is now bigger than The Dark Knight Rises internationally to surpass all non-MCU folks with capes.
I just know after all the slagging that the likes of me, you and Jim have given Moviepass and their business plan they are bound to be the biggest success story in media in 5 years.
Well it either goes over huge and works exactly as they’ve planned or it doesn’t. It doesn’t seem like they’ve planned for a lot in between.
They’re still burning thru money and hoping to get their subscription base down to 1 movie a month on average. In which case why would you have moviepass at all? The math simply doesn’t work for this business.
I assumed their goal was much more of a three-way model where what they are actually making money on is the data they get from the people who use the service. There is a potential for them to seriously disrupt the film industry (even more so than Rotten Tomatoes) if enough of the general public signs on.
It’s not an assumption but their stated business plan but at the moment if people go and see 2 movies a month they are paying $10 on average for that customer data. Facebook likely pay less than a cent, commercial online surveys pay 25c on average for a fairly lengthy questionnaire, I’m not sure what data this is gathering other than what films people like, again Netflix is doing that for next to nothing, IMDB too.
I think what they stated that they would be able to sell is a direct correlation between pushing advertising to a customer and their behavior (going to see the advertised film). That’s what most of the other services lack. Maybe Fandango has that but I doubt they are as effective.
I agree that it’s a horrible business plan until its not. It’s a big gamble. Like Jim said, if they can get the average user down to a film a month, that part is closer to break even and the data becomes almost free. They could potentially set themselves up as the tastemaker in the industry. Cinemark has followed suit with their own similar (though less generous) program.
Facebook, for all their user base and business users and marketing reach make $20 per user. That’s the upper limit I’m thinking. Maybe not, but the math looks troublesome. I think they’re hoping for a rebate from the cinema chains, but of course if their average goes down to one movie a month why would they do that?
It feels like a huge game of chicken.
The UK chains have actually run those for many years with ‘unlimited’ passes. They aren’t as cheap but you will tend to make a saving as a customer if you watch 2 movies a month or more (last I checked the price is around 16 pounds). However they also get a benefit if you buy concessions and as with all loyalty systems (as you said not long back) a big part is tying you to them and not wandering between operators.
There has to be something more down the line, as Jim says if you get down to one movie per customer per month then why are they signing up? Since a hardcore will go once a week or even more it requires a lot of subscribers to pay to never go at all. Gyms kind of work on that basis to an extent but that’s mainly because people feel they should and working out is hard work and an effort, sitting on your arse for 2 hours eating popcorn is not.
Having MoviePass has motivated me to go to the cinema more frequently. I’ve already seen six films in 2018, whereas I saw a total of four in 2017. Part of it is that I want to make sure I get my money’s worth as I prepaid $90 for a 12-month subscription.
Keep it up Jerry, go twice as often so Jim and I can be sure their business plan is pants.
I’ve been talking to Planet Fitness recently - they’re thinking of hiring my company to do some data analysis for them. They have a very dicey business model. 70% of their revenue comes from customers who don’t use their product. 70%!! They considering some sort of direct communication campaign to see what they can do to have more subscribers use the gym in the hope that their revenue becomes a bit more stable. Their big concern is that if they send out a communication they might remind people they’re paying for a service they don’t use and they’ll terminate their contract. Killing the business. We’ve been asked to do some analysis for them on what might happen.
Imagine how fucked you are if your business stability depends on people not using your service. That’s Moviepass. Maybe they become like Planet Fitness, maybe they don’t. It’s an interesting dynamic.
I’m fascinated to find out what the dormancy numbers might be for Netflix. Or Marvel Unlimited.
I don’t think they last to be honest. One tough month and you start cutting back and that dormancy is first for the chop. I know cable options are suffering badly right now here.
I do have a subscription to a local service here called iFlix and their subs are stupid cheap, It’s effectively $1.50 a month. I have let that go without using it much but if they have a series Netflix don’t I’ll use it a lot.
There is likely some overlap but I think inherently a gym is a different business, to cancel is a self defeat, if I knocked off iFlix who cares?
One place where gyms probably work in that respect is that they generally require yearlong memberships that just happen to have monthly payments. So you have not only want to cut off the service but remember to do it around the time of annual renewal. That got us when we started cutting back several years ago.