Any worries that film was front loaded should be gone now.
Industry analyst predicts just three major film studios by 2023
A drastic reduction in the number of US majors by 2023 was one of the notable predictions to emerge from Banff Connect LA, the annual event staged in Los Angeles by the Banff World Media Festival.
An estimated audience of 250 attended the panel discussion and networking event on Tuesday (February 27), designed as a taster for the festival itself, the 39th edition of which is set for June 10-13 in the Canadian mountain resort of Banff.
During the panel session – on the theme of ‘TV in 2023: Deconstructing the disrupted future’ – NBCUniversal affiliate and ad sales executive vice-president Jay McNamara stressed the effect of what he described as “the emergence and rapid uptake of the on demand services – particularly Netflix and Amazon – around the world.”
McNamara continued: “They’ve in many ways opened up new competition for content; in many ways, because they are now global monoliths. [They] have stifled some competition at the local level.”
Wall Street entertainment and internet analyst Laura Martin, from Needham & Company, predicted that over the next five years “we’re going to go from seven big studios to three, because they have to save margins and merging is the best way to do that.”
After investing in content themselves, Martin suggested, tech giants such as Apple “are going to buy the big studios and leave them [in Hollywood]. They will spend three to five years wasting tens of billions of dollars – which we on Wall Street will give them at almost no cost – and then they’ll figure out this is really hard. They don’t know how to manage content and they don’t know how to tell stories.”
The drama boom that has largely been driven by streamers and tech giants has “an economic unsustainability about it,” argued Sean Cohan, president, international and digital media at A+E Networks. “It’s almost like a housing bubble. When you look at the licence fees in the US and then you look at how much the deficits outside the US have to be. The math’s not working.”
Predicting the future is notoriously difficult, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see more consolidation, if it’s legally permitted.
Anyone else want to make their own studio for the sole purpose of being bought out?
I had the pleasure of meeting up with Kiel today and on Black Panther we saw no surprise it hit big in the US, similarly in the UK or France, where there’s a significant population of African descent. Thing is though it’s breaking records in Korea where that community amounts to about 12 people. It was full in Malaysia when I saw it at a daytime showing a couple of weeks in.
The identification part is undoubtedly a big element but it’s a hit when that’s removed.
It’s because of the Busan scenes. Or something.
Even setting the personal identification aside I think there is clearly a strong desire from people to see this kind of a movie featuring non-white/Anglo people and cultures…including by white people.
If you think about it, one thing that everyone in the world has in common is that we’ve NEVER seen a movie like this set in Africa. It’s exciting, it’s fresh, and new.
I think it will be a smash in China, too.
So if the seven major studios are WB, Uni, Paramount, Columbia(Sony), Disney, Fox and Lionsgate…
Disney will obviously be a survivor. Fox is looking to sell.Sony is floundering…
I would say that the ones who also own tv networks – Paramount (CBS), Universal (NBC), and Disney. (ABC) – would be in the strongest shape, but they could easily sell off their movie studios. I don’t really see WB getting sold off, but it could happen. Fox and Columbia are probably goners, and I think LG is still sort of minor league in the scheme of things.
Even having a tv network aligned with your studio is no guarantee in the changing entertainment climate.
I think we could actually be looking at four: Paramount, Universal, Disney, and Warners. Though if Warner’s merger is shot down by the govt, then they could get broken up and the movie division could end up being sold off.
If I have to pick three:
Disney picks up Fox and maybe Columbia, too.
Warners survives. One of these two, WB or Uni, picks up LG.
Paramount goes the way of MGM, shuts down their film division, and sells off their catalog.
Those are the last 4 for sure. Fox is already toast and Sony will shut down soon enough.
And I agree that either Paramount or Universal shut down. Disney are going to make it really hard for other studios to have blockbusters soon. They basically had 5 of last years top 10 movies and I reckon they’ll have 6-7 in future years. It’ll probably be Paramount who throws in the towel - they don’t have anything left in their catalog.
Yeah it’s a good point. I definitely enjoyed that aspect because it is different. We see the white American/European male perspective 90% of the time.
Nah, that’s apparently really not the case. First of all, Hollywood has already been incorporating Korea increasingly in the last six years or so, so the novelty factor is gone; second of all, most Koreans were apparently turned off by the scenes in Korea in avengers 2. Apparently the consensus was that they thought the film made them look too poor? That being said, my wife and others were fairly impressed with Ms. Nyong’o’s korean pronunciation!
Another fun way BP broke records was that it was the first foreign film to be number 1 at the box office during lunar new year in Korea, so that’s pretty neat too.
Indie cinema has done a decent job of showing a different perspective on life, it’s taken a long time for the mainstream to catch up.
Assuming that’s what it’s done, and this is the start of a trend?
And T’Challa is still a superhero and a king. He’s definitely the mainstream version of the “other guy”.
It’ll be interesting to see how the weather affects this weekend’s UK/Ireland box office.
Some of the cinemas here are supposed to re-open today, but even then they were apparently unable to get their copies of some of this weekend’s movies, so Game Night isn’t playing at the biggest cinema here until Tuesday.
I’m surprised they would still have physical copies. Unless the issue was broadband down.
Yeah, I don’t know. It was scheduled to play four times a day, but it now doesn’t show up for today, tomorrow or Monday even though everything else is (for now at least) back on.
I thought pretty much everywhere apart from a few art cinemas were all digital now but I don’t know the full mechanism of getting them downloaded if they had a technical hitch. I know from my friend Alex that his cinemas have the movies downloaded 4-5 days before they show them but they have a timed encryption lock that prevents them being watched until the correct date.
Games night got completely shunted a week in my local cinema so they could run more screenings of black panther
We went to Annihilation last night and it sold out - but only because of spillover from the 4 screens of Black Panther selling out, and Red Sparrow’s one screen also selling out. Basically, BP is still huge.