Can’t shock the Rock
Cool stat. I’d suspect that BP won’t perform below that average, just based on the buzz around it. So $550 might be its floor in North America. And considering even Ant-Man managed $340 million internationally, Black Panther should have a very very good chance of crossing the billion mark. Which is pretty crazy considering some of the recent movies that couldn’t manage that.
It will be interesting to see how heavily Black Panther figures into marketing for Infinity War, now that he’s phenomenally popular.
2.7 is average, not a rule. I wouldn’t be shocked if BP was a bit more front loaded. No competition and a see it now mentality.
I’d expected it to do $400 mil domestic, $400 mil international. I could see maybe $500 mil domestic but the numbers are still beyond belief. This is Black Panther - dude can’t hold on to an ongoing comic in his entire history and he was a snore in Civil War. He’s Ant Man or Dr Strange, C list Marvel. And his numbers are threatening Avengers! The whole dynamic is fascinating and incredible.
Disney did an incredible job pretending this was the first black superhero movie, and avoiding pointing out they’re the reason he hasn’t had a movie sooner.
Just anecdotally, the repeat viewing for Black Panther is nuts. I don’t know anyone, from comic fans, family, and coworkers who isn’t planning to see it at least twice in theaters (or hasn’t already done so).
Or, he (along with Spider-Man) was the best part of Civil War. I think his appearance there definitely helped set up this success (much like Wonder Woman’s in BvS did for her film).
I think I may have mentioned this elsewhere but it is really only barely a superhero movie. If it was just Black Panther and Klaw duking it out in NYC then I think it does much less business.
Wakanda is really the star, the whole idea of it and the world building. Obviously the attention given to women and POC lends it appeal to people who have long felt under-represented in cinema, but I think a lot of people are just feeling bad about the world we live in and it makes them feel good to escape into a diverse, eclectic, utopian society portrayed on screen.
I think it will do strong repeat business on this alone if nothing else.
So an Avatar type experience? True escapism?
Disney really do need to give Trump a cut.
I don’t think it was working with Avatar’s budget, but something similar.
I don’t know if it’s a Trump/Brexit/whatever thing as those are all symptoms and not causes. But I do think these stories are the kind of thing people like imagining. We’ve had too much post-apocalyptic and/or dystopian fiction in the past decade; people are open to more optimistic ideas.
I think people are really underestimating how much repeat viewing this film is going to get. I know people who have already gone to see it three times already and they don’t typically see movies even twice in the theater.
It also has pretty much a free run in its genre of PG rated action/adventure until March 16 when Tomb Raider comes out. That’s a luxury most Summer movies don’t get as another big one opens within 2 weeks at most.
In my experience in the cinema it’s often underestimated how many people just turn up for an evening out and decide what they want to see when they get there, especially teenagers. At the box office you get at least a dozen people a night asking you what’s good to watch.
It’s not us, our existence in this thread means we look in some detail at what is coming out and when but even I’ve done it in the recent past, I was killing time waiting for a flight out of the US and saw ‘Safe House’ which is decidedly average but was the best thing on offer.
Industry morning estimates indicate that Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther has cleared $242M, which means that the superhero now owns the second-best 4-day opening of all-time behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($288.07M) and slashes the FSSM run of Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($241.6M) last December. It’s still early and Disney has yet to call the record. The 4-day for Black Panther should be around $242.4M. Ticket sales for the Ryan Coogler-directed movie were -34% on Presidents Day Monday for $40M-$40.1M. With those figures, Black Panther could very well own the all-time Monday domestic record as well, beating Force Awakens’ $40.1M. Another big winner for Disney, which now owns eight of the top 10 slots on the all-time domestic openers chart. Black Panther slotted 5th this weekend with $201.8M, and it’s only one of five titles to crack past the two-century mark in a three-day period.
While it’s no surprise Black Panther is a hit, if someone had told me 6 months ago that BP would make more money in 4 days than Justice League would make in its entire run I would have thought they were crazy.
Yeah I can’t say many predicted this explosion. My conclusions:
I’ve said for a while date of release doesn’t really matter. I think it’s one of those things that’s just tradition, like US comics were monthly for decades and other schedules used abroad seemed strange, now many come out every two weeks which has been working fine. The 3 highest grossing films of all time came out in the winter. Kingsman made a mint in the slot, so did Deadpool.
Johnny asked who would want to see this film? The answer seems to be everybody.
To be fair Gar the weather is a genuine hurdle in the winter, snowstorms can halt all traffic for large segments of the country.
The demographics for BP were 37% Black, 18% Latino apparently. Minorities have been making up a larger share of the movie market for a while, but those numbers are impressive.
It is I agree but it’s something that’s very locally variable. Most of the time there probably isn’t a snowstorm in the majority of North America (or in Canada they are just used to it and carry on). In the UK (and I suspect the non sunshine states in the north of the US) the sun drives people away from dark rooms and the business suffers as they head to parks and beaches.
It’s a valid point it’s an element of risk but it remains true that the 3 highest grossing films, and all in recent memory, didn’t come out in the Summer and February is looking more and more lucrative with a big hit every year.
Weather certainly can be a factor, but I think most winter days are just kind of cold and gloomy at best. Great time for movie escapism, really. The summer thing I think largely goes back to a time when movies were less front loaded so it was important to release your big movies during the times when kids/teens were out of school. Nowadays that seems less important. November through Christmas is big movie time. Valentine’s Day has become big business. March has seen some big releases and Summer movie season can start as early as mid-April. It’s been a pretty interesting shift these last 20 years or so.
'Avatar’s opening weekend was massively affected by snow.
Then it went on to make $2.78bn.
To be fair Avatar is in a rather strange class of its own. It opened non-spectacularly everywhere and then just ran and ran and ran. It was the perfect storm because of 3D and a couple of films ran off its coat tails like Alice in Wonderland.
Then people realised it really isn’t much to be fussed about. Which is why I maintain the sequels will get nowhere near. It’s true (the Abyss apart) it is foolish to bet against Cameron but that moment isn’t coming back unless he has another technological trick up his sleeve.