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Box Office Mojo


#1422

This is pretty amazing, for a February release. I suspected it may happen after the reaction last year to Wonder Woman and it then doing better than Justice League and things like the video I posted with massive reactions from African Americans.

It still has to be a good film, which by most accounts it is but it really has turned on its head the idea of minority appeal (and yes I know women aren’t actually a minority). I think they stand out and people are saying ‘they did this, I’m going, if it’s good I’m going twice’.

I suppose the next question would be if that could be sustained if they (as ‘Hollywood’ does when anything is a hit) and try and copy it and put out more. Would they just make the standard $800m if they did so the whole thing of identification is moot?


#1423

I’ll be interested to see if Disney pivots the marketing for Infinity War to play up Black Panther’s role in it at all. I mean, they probably don’t need to as the little bits I’ve seen make it pretty clear that Wakanda plays a role in Infinity War, but at the same time this is a monster opening and the response has been overwhelmingly positive.


#1424

it’s been pretty front and center already, but they might…


#1425

I predicted all along this movie would do extremely well even by Marvel’s standards but I did not think it would beat Age of Ultron, Civil War, and Iron Man 3, and nip at the Avengers’ heels, in its opening weekend. I don’t think anybody could have predicted that.

Obviously issues of identity and representation played into it, but that level of success goes beyond that or any one thing. I guess if you nick some of the best bits from Marvel, Bond, and Lord of the Rings, and use it to create a new mythology with high production values and great acting everywhere, you’ve got a hit on your hands.

Fill it with powerful women and POC, and make it a cultural moment that even your mom can’t miss, and you’ve got something bigger than a hit.


#1426

Everything you said plus add in the anticipation for Infinity War.

People want to devour everything Marvel movie-wise at the moment

If the Russos pull it off and leave the ending like Empire I think you’re looking at Avatar levels of ticket sales.


#1427

I think the timing of the release might make that kind of difficult. With Deadpool 2 out two weeks later, a Star Wars movie right after that and then movies like Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World 2 out within 6 weeks of Infinity War, I’m just not sure it can realistically have the kind of legs it would need to do Avatar numbers. The market might be too saturated with blockbusters for it to happen.

What Marvel does have going for it, however (aside from its own golden brand), is that Infinity War is coming right on the heels of two of it’s most well received movies in Ragnarok and Black Panther. Add in the GotG crossing over with The Avengers and that could be enough to smash all kinds of box office records. I’d kind of think anything less than $2 billion might actually be considered disappointing, which is an insane thing to say.


#1428

The thing with Infinity War is that we know a lot of people will go once. The two questions are: Will a lot of people go twice or three times? And: will it cross over from “just a movie” to a major cultural phenomenon and rope in your mom and your coworkers who don’t know the characters already, and so on?

My guess is no…it feels like Marvel has been to this well a couple of times now, and while it will be massive it won’t go much higher than, say, Civil War. They’re not doing anything new; they’re doing the same thing, only bigger.

Maybe I’ll be wrong though.


#1429

People are forgetting that right after Wonder Woman came Justice League. The success of Black Panther is no guarantee of anything.

The Black Panther box office is absurd. The fifth biggest opening in history? In February?? This is clearly a unique situation, not something that will repeat. I think there’s a variety of factors going into this movie, beyond the quality of the movie itself. It shouldn’t be at Avengers numbers. It’s not Marvels very best movie. Everything surrounding this result is ridiculous.


#1430

This point is pretty debatable. I’ll still take the first Guardians but I think there is a real case for it. I mean it’s imperfect but its imperfections are ones that every Marvel film shares.

With your February point I think the release date is a feature, not a bug. Millar and Vaughn showed how big that Valentines Day release could be with Secret Service. The next year FOX pulled the same trick with Deadpool. The pump was primed for someone to really break it open to the next level, and Marvel did it.


#1431



#1432

Not taking anything away from Black Panther’s achievements but credit where it’s due, Deadpool was an R18 movie on a 58 million budget which earned $783,112,979 worldwide.

It shouldn’t even be in the conversation (actually BP was so huge it probably isn’t)


#1433

I’m trying to fathom what my reaction would have been if, three years ago, someone told me that a Black Panther movie would have an opening weekend that doubled Justice League’s.

I would’ve laughed my ass off.


#1434

Or the fact that a Black Panther movie would have a better shot at reaching a billion dollars than Justice League would?


#1435

I feel like we’re counting out Jumanji a little too quick here.


#1436

Jumanji doing better than Justice League?


#1437

I doubt Black Panther will be able to beat it.


#1438

I think it might.

It has taken 9 weeks to hit $900 million globally. BP has done $400 million globally in a few days. Time is on BP’s side.


#1439

Black Panther will likely crush Jumanji in North America. A $200 million opening should guarantee it does at least $460 million in North America. Word of mouth is pretty good so far and there’s not much to really challenge Black Panther for a few more weeks (A Wrinkle in Time has the best shot). If it performs reasonably well, I’d think it’ll go over $500 million fairly easily. For it to then pass Jumanji globally it’ll only need to perform about as well as Wonder Woman did in the international markets. At this point I’d almost be surprised if BP didn’t break a billion, but that’ll mostly come down to its international appeal.


#1440

Marvel films on on average make 2.7 times the opening weekend. Even tossing out the Monday returns, $201 million times 2.7 is $542 million.

If you want to count Monday, then it multiplies out to $634 million.


#1441

Can’t shock the Rock