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Box Office Mojo


#1382

They’ve diverged wildly on a lot of movies for years. A lot of movies that were flops in the States have made big money internationally.


#1383

Easier layup? Ok, how about the hotly-anticipated very first ever sequel to the biggest movie ever made, with all the returning cast and the most shocking shock twist in the history of cinema?

That was The Empire Strikes Back. From the table Mark posted, that had a very similar percentage drop as the TFA-TLJ drop.

Star Wars sequels traditionally underperform. Look at Episode 2 after Episode 1, very similar drop again. They all went down by about a third. TLJ very slightly worse, but not really much in the scheme of things.


#1384

The caption should be:

“FIRE MOOB MISSILES!”


#1385

You want to be able to do that yourself, don’t you?


#1386

You’re assuming he can’t already?


#1387

I think it’s a matter of budget. Gerald’s Game and Mudbound were both well-received, and inexpensive. It’s when you get bigger budget films like Bright and The Cloverfield Paradox “failing” (which depends on how you define that) that it could be a problem.


#1388

‘Bright’ was a Netflix film, they bought it at the script stage, it wasn’t a negative pickup like ‘Cloverfield Paradox’. They also liked the result enough to greenlight the sequel immediately after it was released on their platform.

I’m increasingly of the opinion that something like ‘Paradox’ was useful for them, as it made a big splash on Superbowl night AND It cost the home viewer no extra money at all.

It reminded people that cinema isn’t going to be where every mid-to-big budget film ends up now.

No-one is subscribing or unsubscribing over one film, or two, or even ten. They want to know that they’ll get a range of films and TV and that includes things they would have been expected to pay far more to see in the past.

While cinemas are trying to justify their ticket prices, Netflix are undercutting them with big gestures like this one.


#1389

I’d agree with this exactly. Netflix and other streaming is going to end up being the home of all small to mid sized movies. They have the budget for these kinds of movies, and they want viewers. While I’m sure they’d like a couple of Netflix exclusive Oscar movies (and I’d imagine there’s some studio politics that might get in the way of that), in the most part they want to offer content that’s new, refreshing and gets people excited. Disney won’t be delivering that if their model is billion dollar movies only, Fox are gone and Sony look to be a disaster. That only leaves Warners and Universal to compete with (the others like Paramount are mostly small players now).

It makes perfect sense that if you’ve got a sub $100 million movie project you should be looking to the streamers. I don’t think people are yet - big studios like the oscar buzz and talent still haven’t fully adapted to the stigma of streaming only. Things like Bright and Cloverfield feel like DVD direct movies, but that’ll eventually change as Netflix get big hits (flops will be quickly forgotten in their model).

In 10 years time the whole movie making model might have changed. It’s going to be fascinating.


#1390

Honestly I think the Netflix barometer for success is whether or not people are talking about their projects. The business model doesn’t really factor in how many people are watching. It’s stuff being made for people who like to talk, which is why they do all these geek projects. And it’s like the next iteration of basic cable, which typically has a lower threshold of expectations than the networks, or even premium cable, where if you’re not generating massive ratings and chatter (chatter has been key for cable in general, which is the main difference from the networks, where procedural dramas and sitcoms, which rely more on reputation than whether or not they generate geek talk, will always thrive) you might as well not exist, and as such cancellation comes swiftly your way. Social currency is what streaming services are all about; they’re the direct offspring of the Internet age. So things like Bright and Cloverfield Paradox absolutely belong on Netflix. They garner the reaction the service is looking for.


#1391

That’s just the internet, and the internet is a tiny percentage of the Netflix market. They’ll know their own measures, and they know Bright was a huge success (most internet people seem to have not liked it, but the internet hates The Big bang Theory and that shit is huge so what the internet says is mostly irrelevant). Their measure is subscriptions, and that’s a factor of all their content combined rather than a single show making all the difference.


#1392

But the viewer response versus the critics response, that’s what I’m talking about. You can see it here in how MWers have talked about Bright versus the trashing it got from critics. There’s a lot of material where critics and audiences agree these days (the Avengers films, for instance), and yet there are also massive disagreements. With the prestige stuff like House of Cards (before Spacey turned it into, well, a house of cards), that audience accepted it the same way the critics did. But most Netflix material is trending geekward. Stranger Things, the Defenders franchise, and the Millar purchase all support this.


#1393

Viewer response is like Yelp reviews. Some people care, most don’t. Most people simply want to watch the kind of thing they’d be interested in. Chasing viewer reviews is also like chasing Yelp reviews - really not worth it.

Netflix are securing the geek market, that’s 100% clear, but the geek market is a shitty market - it’s fickle, it abandons you easily, it’s random in what it likes and doesn’t like, and it’s picky as fuck. Netflix will be looking to shows like The Crown to secure the mainstream market. I think they’ve got the geeks - honestly what self respecting geek won’t want Netflix in case they miss out on something they can discuss online? Netflix need to get the mainstream hourseholds. They haven’t targeted kids too well yet, but given most of their original programming they’re definitely going after the NBC and ABC dram type market.


#1394

Yeah, they have Star Trek and all of the upcoming Millar goodness. There’s no way that I can let my subscription slide.
And there’s no way I’m going to cancel just because a couple of things that I should have been into fell flat for me.


#1395

Oh, I suspect I’ll cancel Netflix once more, probably in a few weeks. Then, once they have something to pull me back I’ll re-up.


#1396

Netflix ultimately want to be like a phone contract; you just have one because it’s a part of your normal life. Not having one is the odd choice.

That’s where Amazon have an advantage; Prime is something a lot of people choose as part of doing more of their shopping via Amazon, but including TV and film is a powerful bonus.

I think that’s why Netflix have been more aggressive in acquiring and (increasingly) originating content that people actually want.


#1397

As I am prone to do I would also add Netflix have the international reach. Amazon only operate their shopping in 12 countries because it’s a long slow and expensive structure to set up. Without that extra benefit I have yet to meet anyone signed up to Amazon and most are on Netflix in this part of the world (you can have a streaming only version that’s cheaper than full Prime membership).

They are also very far advanced in tailoring local content and have created new content in Japanese, German etc.


#1398

I would agree with this. I have Amazon’s video service because I have Amazon prime. I don’t have Amazon prime because of the video service.
If I had to pick one or the other based only on video streaming, netflix wins hands down.


#1399

Same here.


#1400

Amazon’s streaming is pretty dire aside from a handful of movies that they picked up at Sundance or whatever and a couple of shows. Their original TV shows are trash and the older movies they’ve picked up have such poor transfers they look better on VHS.

Not to mention their app is difficult to navigate and they mix and match stuff you have to buy with stuff that comes with the streaming service, making for a pretty unpleasant user experience.

I don’t think they’ll be serious contenders in this realm in 5 years. They have much bigger fish to fry.


#1401

Agreed. Where do they get those poor transfers? For some films, there’s also more than one transfer of the same film.

We do use it sometimes for video on demand type stuff if we want to watch a movie.