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Box Office Mojo


#958

I call it living life on the edge. :wink:


#959

Hum, I wouldn’t take that bet… I mean, yeah I’m one of those who thinks Avatar is a steaming pile of shit outside the shiny 3D thing it had going for it, but that’s precisely the thing: I’m sure Cameron will do something similar in terms of visuals and that’s the way in.

Of course if he’s relying in a decade-old trick, sure that might be an issue… Anyways, I wouldn’t take that bet until the 1st trailer drops at least… that should be a good indication =P


#960

This carefully-worded phrase allows Gar to claim that he predicted any outcome that isn’t exactly half the box-office of the first film. :slight_smile:


#961

That’s a bit daring, why not wait until the tracking is in, or maybe test to see how it goes after the first 7 or 8 weeks of release?


#962

To the cent! :smile:


#963

I do think you have a point. If they had made great Star Wars movies instead of okay ones, they could’ve gotten so much more out of this.

We’ll see how things go, but I’d guess some people at Disney are getting nervous at this point. With all the huge plans to expand their SW brand, this has to sting a little.


#964

I’m not sure that logic holds - did TFA make US$2 billion because it was a truly great movie? Or is the idea that they could have made it to US$3 billion with a better one?

I actually think that, for a lot of these big franchises, the films only have to clear a relatively low quality bar for people to go and see them, and I don’t think that making the films better would have that much of an impact on their earnings.

It’s only franchises that have been actively bad* on a consistent basis that have really suffered, like the DCU movies or maybe Transformers recently.

(* In terms of general audience reaction. I know all films will have some people who love them.)


#965

No, I agree that everyone was going to see TFA regardless (and that you could not have brought more people in).

But I think it was Millar who proposed the theory that the quality of a movie - when it comes to those big brands - wasn’t as important to that particular movie as it was to the next sequel coming in.

So I think that instead of The Last Jedi dropping off, you could’ve brought in most of these people again. These movies should be the big Christmas event of the year; everybody should be taking their kids in the days leading up to Christmas (like I did), and they should be going Star-Wars-crazy and buying all the Lego merch and I am not sure that’s happening to the extent it could have.

With the resonance the Last Jedi is getting right now, I’d be worried about the third one. Not because it won’t make money - like you said, a franchise this big will always make money - but because they’ve planned to expand with spin-off movies and so on and it seems like demand for Star Wars has dropped more than I’d be comfortable with in that position.


#966

Disney is more than movies. It’s worth repeating that.

Disney is the merchandise. It’s the TV shows, it’s the new Star Wars theme park and it’s the cruise ships.

Yes. Cruise ships;

So is a decline in box office a problem? Yes, but as long as it doesn’t go into freefall, Disney, the massive global corporation, will continue to benefit hugely from buying Lucasfilm.


#967

Yeah, this result is a consequence of The Force Awakens not being quite what people wanted I think. If you go to a restaurant and have a disappointing meal you don’t go back the next time. Justice League similarly did poorly in part because of BvsS. It’s the double edged sword with sequels and it’s one of the worries with Kingsman 3 (and why Kick Ass 3 never happened).

I’m sure no-one felt that TLJ would make TFA money, but still I think it was reasonable to assume over $1.5 billion. Given the mixed response to TLJ we could be facing sub billion future Star Wars movies. I know it’s crazy when we’re in an age where less than a billion is considered a disappointment, but we’re also in the same age where entertainment products are big business controlling tens of thousands of jobs. They’re as economically relevant as a new car launch or a new soda flavor. Moreso probably. And my main point is if the next GTA video game sells half the units the previous one did there’s no reasoning you way out of that financial failure. So less than a billion dollars would be a disappointment to all concerned.


#968

Honestly, I’d be surprised if the Solo movie manages to get to a billion at the box office. It’s going to have to have really good word of mouth to get people to care about not Harrison Ford Han Solo. And the fact that they didn’t even have a trailer put together to play before The Last Jedi was a little bit weird considering it’s not that far from coming out. There hasn’t even been a teaser yet. I’m kind of expecting Solo to be the first legit Star Wars bomb at the box office right now. It comes out 3 weeks after Infinity War, a week before Deadpool 2, and just a few weeks before Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World 2. At this point it’s almost set up to fail.


#969

That’s what happened to Justice League. Middling to poor reviews AND being sandwiched in a cluster of Disney hits. It never had a chance.


#970

#971

I still think a movie “bombing” with $200 million at the box office is an absurd suggestion. It’s a distinctly modern phenomenon, started happening around the turn of the millennium. It suddenly became easy for blockbuster films (anything that cracked the top ten of a given year, or even the top twenty) to be despised. Certainly, the more these blockbusters were part of a franchise or known property, the response was half lots of people going to see it and half most of those people complaining the franchise or known property was “screwed up.” And you can even go as far back as the original “summer of sequels,” 1989. There was Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, Lethal Weapon 2, Back to the Future Part II, Ghostbusters 2, and even Star Trek V: The Final Frontier. Generally, these are not popular movies in those franchises. This is a spoiled response. But studios won’t back away from this model because it’s easy money, even if the fact that there’s so many of them now a lot of them really do bomb. If they spend too much money on them, that’s their problem (and maybe they’ll adjust, like Paramount used to for Star Trek budgets).


#972

#973

On a similar note, it’ll be interesting to see how Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom does next year. Nobody expected Jurassic World (which was okay at best) to do as well as it did, and I’m not expecting the sequel to come close to it, but I could be wrong.


#974

I have always maintained that Jurassic Park is a more popular franchise than people realize, but I think Jurassic World was riding the Chris Pratt high from Guardians and may have gotten the bump that GotG2 would have gotten if it had somehow come out that summer. Now that Pratt has been a downer and hasn’t told a joke in like 8 straight movies (including that one) I wonder if that bump will hold.


#975

Okay so it’s the 29th December. Box Office Mojo are projecting The Last Jedi will top Beauty and the Beast domestically by New Year’s Day so I’m going with that in the summary of the year. It will go into next year and isn’t guaranteed for worldwide but I’m going to make an assumption there too.

Worldwide

  1. Probably Star Wars - Probably $1.3bn
  2. Beauty and the Beast - $1.263bn
  3. The Fate of the Furious - 1.235bn
  4. Despicable Me 3 - $1.033bn
  5. Spider-Man Homecoming - $883m
  6. Wolf Warrior 2 - $870m
  7. Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2 - $863m
  8. Thor Ragnarok - $846m
  9. Wonder Woman - $821m
  10. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men something - $749m

Domestic (USA and Canada).

  1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi - Probably around $600m
  2. Beauty and the Beast - $504m
  3. Wonder Woman - $412m
  4. Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2 - $389m
  5. Spider-Man: Homecoming - $334m
  6. It - $327m
  7. Thor Ragnarok - $310m
  8. Despicable Me 3 - $264m
  9. Logan - $226m
  10. The Fate of the Furious - $225m

No Justice League in either top 10, no Transformers.


#976

UK:

  1. Star Wars - ??? likely about $110M (only the first weekend is on box office mojo)
  2. Beauty and the Beast - $90M
  3. Dunkirk - $75M
  4. Despicable Me 3 - $62M
  5. Guardians 2 - $53M
  6. It - $42M
  7. Paddington 2 - $41M
  8. Thor Ragnarok - $40M
  9. Spider-Man Homecoming - $39M
  10. The Fate of the Furious - $37.5M

Thor, Spidey, Wolverine, and the Justice League had no chance against that bear and his marmalade sandwiches.

EDIT: It’s still wild to me that “It” went toe to toe with all those big superheroes in the US/UK too. I thought it was going to be a nice cult hit and that’s all.


#977

I remember reading that WB was reworking how the DC movies would be handled but I wonder if JL’s failure will cause further reorganization.