Batman was in two movies this year and they both wildly underperformed. Bat-fatigue?
Justice League is such a disaster. Which is a weird thing to say about a movie that grossed $650 million. But the fact that it’s the lowest grossing of this DC movie universe experiment is awful. Who would have ever thought that a Dr. Strange movie would out perform a Justice League movie. I mean, it barely outperformed Thor 2, which most people hate.
I’m kind of shocked that WB is still going forward with Flashpoint and really anything that’s not Wonder Woman and Aquaman at this point. Aquaman only because it was already filmed.
That’s not too bad then. I had previously expected it to split the difference between TFA and Rogue One and end up with around a billion and a half.
I think the mixed reaction may have dampened things a bit but I imagine it will still get quite a way over the billion mark.
The films were not good enough.
Batman is an eternal concept, it goes up and down but you can’t expect the ever growing money take unless you make it better.
I have a trilogy of Boba Fett films.
Takes place between ESB and ROTJ. It would involve Boba Fett and the other five bounty hunters from ESB. The movie would open with the Millennium Falcon chasing Slave-1 through space. I’d probably have the plot revolve around the other five bounty hunters trying to steal the frozen Han Solo so they can collect Jabba’s bounty on him. The “Bounty Hunter” movie.
This film would open on Canto Bight, with Grand Admiral Thrawn winning an ancient McGuffin in a poker game. Thrawn discovers that his McGuffin is a fake, and the original was stolen and replaced with the fake by Doctor Aphra (Chloe Bennett). Thrawn hires Boba Fett to recover the artifact from Aphra, Black Krrsantan, 0-0-0 (all black chrome and glowing red eyes, voiced by Anthony Daniels), and BT-1. The “James Bond” movie.
The third movie would involve Boba Fett being hired to protect someone’s daughter from Prince Xizor and the Black Sun, and would have Fett be playing the role of protector and protagonist, essentially the “good guy.” The “Mob” movie.
This series of films would explore the underworld of the Star Wars galaxy, the criminals, and how they operate. Bounty hunters, assassins, thieves, smugglers, and assassins. I’d also make them in a “grindhouse” style, which would give them a very different ferl from the other epic Star Wars films while still having the retro tone we associate with Star Wars.
You’ve put an awful lot of thought into this!
As I said elsewhere, WB did JL no favors with the release date. Sandwiching it among Thor Ragnarok, Coco and Star Wars: The Last Jedi was just stupid. It needed to be at a time when it had some space and not have to bump up against a blockbuster.
Last Jedi is at $395 million right now. Rogue One was at $318 million and Force Awakens at $571 million at the same point in time. It’s not really halfway between Rogue One and Force Awakens - that’s be $445 million. Rogue One finished at $532 million, and the current dailies for Last Jedi are on some days lower than Rogue One. I’d assume the $70 million gap remains and it comes in at $600 million domestic. These movies are 50% domestic, 50% international. So projection is probably just over $1.2 billion.
I think that’s pretty poor, relatively speaking. They broke Star Wars.
Which bizarrely as my numbers above show is pretty much the same one third drop as the other two second episodes of the trilogies. It’d be interesting to see if episode 9 completes the pattern and has a little bump higher.
When you say ‘relatively speaking’, are you talking about in relation to The Force Awakens? I think it was always going to be impossible to get anywhere near that level again, and I don’t think anyone expected it to.
I think we’re seeing with Rogue One and The Last Jedi a bit more of a realistic indication of what a Star Wars movie will make, outside of the big comeback hype of TFA.
I think we can save the ‘it broke Star Wars’ talk for the Han Solo movie.
I wouldn’t call The Last Jedi “realistic.” “Gritty” yes. “Edgy” a little. But not “realistic.”
It’s exactly like that in my neighbourhood!
All that sounds fucking awesome.
They’re losing maybe a billion dollars between movies. No matter how hard it’s rationalize by fans that’s a colossal loss of ticket buyers. There’s a lot of explanations offered when in comes to reduced box office numbers, but at the end of a day if a brand isn’t staying steady or growing it’s in trouble.
If Avatar did this, or Pirates, or Transformers or another franchise with a less devoted fan base we’d be more ready to say these numbers are a huge red flag. With Star Wars we’re told it’s expected. To me Disney broke Star Wars as half the fans decided to stay at home.
I think we may be in danger of doing a ‘greatest hits’ of the Box Office Mojo thread at this point. These long-running franchises always fluctuate. Gar will wheel out the Harry Potter example in a minute.
I don’t really think it’s an issue of the fans trying to explain away a bad result. The drop between Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones was similar - US$1.027 billion to US$649 billion - and I think we saw a similar dynamic there in terms of the hype for the big comeback movie giving way to a more realistic figure for the follow-up.
And Star Wars is still alive today.
But everyone interprets these things in their own way, and I can absolutely see why going from 2 billion to 1.2 billion seems like a drastic drop. I think a lot depends on to what extent you think the original 2 billion was a special one-off result or one that should be expected to be able to be repeatable ad infinitum.
I officially retired from that in August 2016.
I think Lucas broke Star Wars with Phantom Menace. So bad that he sold the company just to escape the ongoing shit storm.
As an aside. I’ll state it for the record now, Avatar 2 won’t make half of the box office of the first film.
Yes I am daring to bet against Cameron!