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Box Office Mojo


#3758

Honestly some of the opinions here shouldn’t be expressed in public.


#3759

If that’s true, presumably people won’t be going to Infinity War 2 either? (I’ve watched 4 superhero properties on TV in the last week and I don’t even have Netflix.)


#3760

I feel like Infinity War 2 is the event, but Captain Marvel isn’t.


#3761

It’s not quite the same though. Superhero is a genre, Legion is not very much like Flash in tone or content.

Lego is a franchise and they all present pretty much the same animation style and tone. While someone may enjoy The Gifted on TV or whatever it is in no way comparable as a spectacle to the $500m they’ve shelled out on Avengers Endgame, that in itself marks a reason to go and spend on tickets for a family. If the next 3 MCU movies came out every 2 months on TV with the same production values and tone then that would be directly comparable.


#3762

I wonder if this year isn’t going to be quite as massive as people may have thought. Glass and LEGO are already underperforming; Captain Marvel, Aladdin, and Lion King all look pretty bad; we know which way Star Wars is trending; I would no longer be surprised if Infinity falls shorts of the first one (while still being massive, obviously).

Maybe it will be a little more unpredictable than it looked 6 months ago.


#3763

I suspect it won’t be as big as last year since it won’t have the 1-2 punch of Black Panther and Infinity War. My thoughts are Captain Marvel will do similar to Thor Ragnarok (I kind of think that’s its floor unless it’s complete trash). And if Endgame is really over 3 hours long, it will be very hard for it to match Infinity War’s numbers.

That said, I suspect Lion King and Toy Story for will do big business where things like Dumbo and Aladdin might stumble. I also expect Spider-Man will do well, although probably nothing out of the ordinary. Maybe Star Wars gets a boost from being the last in the trilogy with the return of Abrams…or maybe it does about the same as Last Jedi.

Captain Marvel will be the first big test, so it’ll be interesting to see if lack of Internet enthusiasm translates to anything. As I’ve said before, most women I know are pretty excited for it. They really should have tried to do a Valentine’s Day/President’s weekend release, though.


#3764

I actually think Endgame and Aquaman is why everything else is underperforming. Aquaman really didn’t deserve to do as well as it did and there’s fallback from that. Add to that the anticipation for Endgame and everything else seems to be lost completely under this juggernaut. Nothing seems anywhere near as exciting or will have anywhere near the same audience investment and because of those two things I think everything between is suffering. If Endgame sticks the landing I think anything afterwards will have an easier path to sucess. Black Panther was what set audiences up for a big cinema year and Endgame will be the film that does a similar job, nothing else until then is capable.


#3765

Lion King and Aladdin are going to be huge. Captain Marvel is going to open with, unless tracking is wildly wrong, 140-plus domestically. I don’t tbink anyone realistically expects ep 9 to make less that TLJ… I suspect it will do far better, actually. If Endgame makes less than Infinity War (pretty big “if”), I don’t think it will be by much. Also…Toy Story and Spider-Man will be gigantic.

Glass and Lego underperforming aren’t necessarily indicators of danger…Glass was never going to be massive, and the first Lego movie, while successful, didn’t break 500million worldwide.


#3766

I’m mostly trying to stir the pot with debate here, as there are clearly going to be some massive hits. What I wonder if it will be like 2017 where it looked like a killer slate at the start of the year but then lots of things did worse than expected.


#3767

Do y’all know the costs of going to a movie? Maybe with (shudder) a family???

It’s not underperforming. It is simply frequency. Folks don’t have enough expendable income to afford going to the cinema any more often. There’s an upper limit, and that limit can lower with bad weather, a movie with a bad reputation, or simply too many “blockbusters” in a row.

Figure the audience for all films is a lake. Each movie draws water from the lake. A bad film that takes in $100K on opening weekend is like ten buckets of water out of the lake. A blockbuster like Aquaman can drop the level of the lake by half. The time needs to elapse so the rain fills the lake back up. Political problems (like everybody who will be paying some taxes this year, and thanks, Republicans!) create drought. Public turmoil and shootings create drought. All the teachers in the city on strike create drought. Get the drift?

Timing is critical.


#3768

If Engame underperforms, then yes, start worrying… but Glass and Lego? nah, we’re still fine… :smile:


#3769

I think endgame and Captain Marvel will do well, building on each other.

Otherwise, that financial fatigue is going to be fierce, especially when folks get around to figuring finances. and fiscally freeze in fright!


#3770

I think Aladdin and Lion King will do great because of the family and nostalgia factors. Wouldn’t be surprised if Captain Marvel does fantastic opening week but has precipitous drop off following that. And while this Star Wars is going to make a ton of money, it’ll earn less than the previous two.


#3771

Yeah, at this stage I think we know exactly what to expect from these remakes. They’ll stick pretty closely to the originals, they’ll get a load of parents who were old enough to remember the animated versions to attend with their kids, and they’ll do pretty well even if they’re a bit creatively hollow.


#3772

A pity the original writers of the animated movies are getting hosed on the live action movies:



#3773

I hear that William Shakespeare is particularly pissed off about it.


#3774

I’m reasonably certain that the fact he’s totally dead, along with many generations of his descendants, means he’s not.


#3775

Or perhaps I wasn’t being entirely serious. I will leave it to the reader to decide!

(He ripped off Hamlet in the first place, anyway.)


#3776

460abce576890e880b4522b32c0d169c


#3777

Apparently, I am related to William Shakespeare.

We’re both mammals!