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Box Office Mojo


#3569

Yeah but they’ll do another one. It’s all just teaser shit until 2 weeks before release when non-nerds are activated by appearances on Jimmy Kimmel and Graham Norton.


#3570

Perhaps, but Jim is right that even the teasers for things like GotG and BP were electric. You knew from the moment those dropped that Marvel had a hit on their hands. Captain Marvel has been much more muted. I’m sure I’ll be quite entertained, but nothing from the teasers had a hook that differentiated it from anything else.


#3571

The first look trailers for the movies I mention were all great. It’s bizarre to make a dreary first trailer and then beef up the second one. This movie is selling advanced tickets now, it’s time to get the hype going. And it’s not like Disney aren’t spending a shit ton of money to get get people hyped up.


#3572

For some perspective on advanced ticket sales:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-10/-captain-marvel-advance-tickets-may-shatter-record-for-series


#3573

I think Presales is a shitty measure though. Justice League outsold Wonder Woman for example. Last Jedi beat Infinity War. It’s an indicator, but little more than that.

As an aside, 10 of the 11 biggest opening weekends ever are owned by Disney. I think it’s in their model to do what they can to get huge opening weekend numbers (as that’s when they get the biggest share of the box office receipts).


#3574

Honestly these trailers have clearly been aimed at a sense of female empowerment rather than spectacle. Though I assume the next one before the film comes out will bring that.


#3575

Sure, but if you stack them alongside current tracking numbers and historical trends for Marvel and movies that open at $140+ million then I think the current story is that Captain Marvel is looking to perform quite well.

Granted, we’re still nearly 2 months away so things can change for better or worse. BP’s early tracking had it at about $130 million and it obviously crushed that. Could be that tracking is overestimating Captain Marvel based on BP and IW numbers. Who knows. They certainly overestimated things like Ant-Man & Wasp and Solo last summer so the same thing could be happening here.


#3576

90% of the audience is completely unaware of any films coming out in 3-4 months. The TV spots, the mass interview shows, the poster campaigns, they all start to exist really 2/3 weeks out from release. The rest is all fan service.


#3577

I’ve got:

Endgame: $2.25 billion, a tad more than Infinity War, as everyone says. This feels like a lock; my only reservation is that Infinity War may have gotten a Moviepass bump in the US that won’t be here this time.

Captain Marvel: $1.1 billion, and I might even go higher if I had more faith in Larson.

Spidey: $900 million. I’m not really feeling this one going much higher than the first one but I have a feeling Endgame will tee it up hard.

Joker: $900 million. I wouldn’t bet against the Joker and I think Phoenix will be great (furthermore, I don’t think he would have done it if the script were shit) and this will do Venom business. I’m surprised at all the low estimates here.

Shazam: $550 million. The trailer look a wee bit too hokey to me, like a Diary of the Wimpy Kid movie. I think families will like it but adults without kids will stay away.

Dark Phoenix- $450 million. As this is the last Fox movie there is probably a sense of “what’s the point” but this feels like the absolute floor for an X-film.

Hellboy- $200 million, and that’s probably generous. I am probably the only one here who thought that trailer looked like shit but I just don’t see the appeal here. Granted it was 2008 and just before the China boom really got going, but the last one did $160 million and there is little chance this one is a better movie. However, I could also see it tanking everywhere but China and doing nice business there.

New Mutants- $150 million, maybe less. I’m surprised Fox hasn’t tried to dump it on Netflix or Hulu and cut their losses. Maybe they have and were rebuffed. In other words, I’m still not totally convinced this will actually see the light of day.


#3578

I’m sure Phoenix will be great and he certainly doesn’t pick shit, dull movies, so with any luck Joker will be anything but that. However, Phoenix also hasn’t been in anything with mainstream appeal since Walk The Line in 2005. Joker is a better known villain character than Venom but this doesn’t seem like the kind of movie that would hold strong international box office appeal compared to a zany monster action movie. Plus, maybe people get their bad clown-related itches scratched by It Chapter 2 the month before.

Or, it is indeed a great movie with strong word of mouth and Joaquin gets to accept an Academy Award in character. We shall see.


#3579

Let’s see how Warners decide to push it?

I’ve been assuming it’s aimed at a niche audience, but that may not be the case.

We’ve only seen the live action being filmed. We don’t know what sort of scope the film has?


#3580

I’m going to be more generous here and say that Endgame will make it to 2.5 Billion. I think the success in some countries where the success of Infinity War wasn’t expected to be as large mean there will be an uphike and Endgame will smash foreign film records even more. You can tack onto that more rewatches and people who usually wait for Bluray but go to the cinema because it’s the final act. The fact that IW stuck the landing pretty much universally means that there has be constant positivity and promotion for this movie nearly every single day since it’s predecessor across the world. A year is plenty of time for those unaware of the full story to catch up so I think there will be some new fans.

One thing that has occurred to me is that the MCU is consistently growing its fan base as every year you have a new set of kids who love it while I don’t the mortality rate of older fans is anywhere near as high.


#3581

Surely Avengers: Endgame will be the first film to pass the $1 Trillion mark.


#3582

I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict that Endgame won’t get quite as high as Infinity War. I think pulling off great endings is harder than setting up exciting stories, especially when they’re trying to pay off so much (in terms of both IW’s setup and the entire MCU so far).

The novelty of seeing all these characters cross over won’t be quite the same as it was for Infinity War, and I don’t know if there will be a ‘wow’ moment for audiences on the same level as the finger-snap - and I think both of these might have a slight effect on multiple viewings (which I think are going to be determining factors in whether it comes in slightly under or slightly over IW).

It’ll be around the same, though.


#3583

Avengers- 2.3 billion. People are going to want to see the swan song. The three hour running time might hurt it, but Is suspect the damage will be negligible.

Dark Phoenix- 475 million. A remake of a movie they already screwed up, with the same writer who screwed it up the first time. Extensive and expensive reshoots. A cast that looks incredibly bored. A franchise about to be rebooted. This will break even in spite of itself, but not much more, I think.

Joker- 400 million. Is this rated R? Joker commands money, but this looks like a niche film not meant for broad appeal. Its budget is like 60 million, right? This looks more like a weird psychological crime thriller than a four quadrant people pleasing blockbuster.

Shazam - 500 million. The first trailer was super lame. Zachary Levi might have been the wrong choice for this…he doesn’t seem particularly charismatic, and I feel like this movie will need to thrive on charisma to rise to the top. It looks inoffensive enough to make a tidy amount of money, but I don’t see this shattering walls or anything.

Captain Marvel - 850 million. Given its tracking, where the low-end expectations are around 120-130, I think it is safe to say this is going to be a hit. Endgame excitement will boost it past more than it would have made in a vacuum. Larson comes off as strangely wooden in the trailers, which might hurt it a bit, but I don’t think ten year old girls will really care about that when they’re begging to go see the movie.

New Mutants -Forgot about this. Twenty bucks?

Spider-Man - 900ish. On par with the first movie.

Hellboy- Ugh. 280ish, maybe? Looks uninspired.


#3584

Typically you can expect a 20%+ boost for the final part of a story as everyone who’s caught up on DVD over the years wants to see the last part and not have it spoiled (or just miss out). An extra $500 million feels like a lot but I could see it happening, particularly if there’s a massive feel good ending to it.


#3585

I also think that it will get a lot of rewatches, just based on it being the “last” one. Marvel nerds will see it a bunch of times, maybe even more than they would normally.


#3586

Oh god, no.
Where’s Kevin Tsujihara when you need him?


#3587

#3588

It’s getting hard to predict with rising cinema attendance in Asia… plus you never know how they’ll market it over there and if the general population will latch on to it.

Anyways, Endgame should do about the same but more for the aforementioned natural growth, which could be anywhere between 2.2 to 2.5B. I just hope it bumps SW… But considering how well IW did, and how much Thanos was embraced in general, it’s hard to see it doing less than IW.

Captain Marvel will get 2 bumps, one from the Endgame connection, and one (at least in the US) from the whole “female led” thing. You can expect a lot of click-bait shit to come out very soon, which will raise awareness greatly. So I’d probably go to 900M-1.1B. It’s gonna be super front-loaded.

Spidey 2… I’m guessing it’ll do around 800M. Yes it’s fun and all but it’s Spidey’s 7th movie… the luster ain’t probably there as it used to.

Ditto for Dark Phoenix, adding the fact that a lot of nerds know what’s up and interest has been rather lost. Although it’s the swan song of the Fox-men so who knows, people might show up for that reason. Still, I think it’s not gonna do well. 600M at most, and I’m being super generous here.

I’d put Shazam in between 600 and 800M as well, because of the good will Aquaman bought, but Shazam ain’t a well known franchise and there’s a LOT to choose from this year, it’s not like there’s a lack of SH flicks anymore.

Joker will depend on the buzz it manages to generate. Honestly I wouldn’t even attempt to predict this one since it could flop hard or blow up like crazy. This could be a Fantfourstic or a Deadpool.

New Mutants: Does anyone even care about this? My prediction is that it won’t even get released (on theaters at least) :smile:

Hellboy… meh… 300M tops, I don’t think people care all that much about Hellboy.

When is the Spawn movie coming, supposedly?