Go Bumblebee go!
They surprised everyone after we had written off the franchise by making one that was good. Even Mark Kermode gave it a good review and his hatred of the Transformers films so far is legendary.
Thoughts on how the 2019 superhero movies are going to perform at the box office?
I’ll go with something like this:
1/ Avengers Endgame - $2.25b - c’mon, right?
2/ Spider-Man: Far From Home - $1bn - complete with a post-credits appearance by Venom that Tom Holland spoils on Twitter a month before the movies comes out
3/ Captain Marvel - $750m - not sure what legs this one will have considering what hits the month after it comes out
4/ Shazam - $600m - it’ll probably be a fun movie but no idea why it is coming out the same month as Endgame (I’ll take a punt and say it is well-received and the sequel does big numbers)
5/ Joker - $500m - no clue on this one, really.
6/ New Mutants - $450m - if it works as a standalone superherohorror film it’ll likely out-perform the ‘main’ X-Men movie this year but either way we’re just running down the clock.
7/ Dark Phoenix - $400m - quite a bit less than Apocalypse but the interest has long since gone
8/ Hellboy - $150m - eh, what ya gonna do?
What hits the month after Cap Marvel?
Shazam and then Endgame.
Not going to make the same mistake I did with Venom.
Endgame - 2 Billion Dollars.
Spider-Man: Far From Home - 800 Million
Captain Marvel - 700 Million
Shazam - 800 Million
Joker - 400 Million
Dark Phoenix - 200 Million
Hellboy - 150 Million
New Mutants - 900 Million
Sneaked that in at the end
I mean, we alllll saw what happened with Venom
I think Captain Marvel makes a minimum $800 million. It’s already tracking for over $150 million on opening weekend and I know a lot of women who are really excited for it. Plus, it gets an Endgame boost after the tease at the end. If Ant-Man & Wasp can make almost $700 million I think Captain Marvel is a safe bet for at least $800. Unless it just has zero international appeal. Which I suppose is possible. China is obviously a make or break for foreign gross these days.
Still, Captain Marvel basically has zero competition for 4 straight weeks domestically so that should help it.
I think I’m with you. My daughter was asking about female Marvel heroes the other day (she’s 10) and after remembering Black Widow, Wasp and Scarlet Witch I reminded her Captain Marvel was coming and she got very excited. I think it should do more than Ant-Man and The Wasp.
Endgame - >$2 Billion. Just a wee bit more than Infinity War.
Spider-Man: Far From Home - 900 Million. More than the last one as this looks ace and everyone loves the new Spidey.
Captain Marvel - 850 Million. Should be a solid debut for a new solo movie character.
Shazam - 700 Million. Don’t think it’ll work like Aquaman did internationally.
Joker - 200 Million. Honestly I think beyond hardcore comic nerds I doubt many people want to see this. First time the Joker flops.
Dark Phoenix - 300 Million. Smells like ass but that never stopped the X Men before.
Hellboy - 250 Million. I think the interest in Hellboy has been over stated.
New Mutants - 200 Million. Looks like a shit TV movie.
I would be quite happy for Captain Marvel to do better than I predicted. However, it is the first “new” character they’ve launched since Doctor Strange and that tends to be a bit of a struggle. Wonder Woman took the mantle of the first big female superhero movie and was already a far better known property. I doubt Nick Fury being in it will be any sort of major draw. It does have the pre-Endgame set-up intrigue going for it, however, so who the hell knows.
I can see why people are uncertain of Captain Marvel, but just because there’s been one female lead superhero movie doesn’t mean people are suddenly satiated. I think it’s probably more important to look at the historical trends of the Marvel Cinematic brand as a whole. Right now the average global total for a MCU movie is $875 million with the median at just under $750. The average opening weekend for their movies is $125 million with the median just under $110. Captain Marvel is current tracking between $150-160 million. Of the ~25 movies that have had opening weekends over $140 million only two of them have earned less than $800 million globally. And of the Marvel movies that have opened that big, the minimum global gross is around $860 million. So if it hits those tracking numbers then that stats would say it’s probably got around a 95% chance of hitting at least $800 million.
I’ve heard more buzz on my various timelines of people not caring about it in light of Endgame, rather than for it due to Endgame.
I think Captain Marvel’s success is less about her being a woman and more about everyone thirsting for more Marvel before Endgame. Even if half the people who saw Endgame went to see Captain Marvel you’d be over a billion, and they’ve essentially set this up as an important chapter in the Endgame storyline. And Marvel fans are totally invigorated for these movies right now following Infinity War - the fandom feels much like the LOTR fans after The Two Towers. I could see Captain Marvel breaking a billion, but I think it doesn’t look like a great movie so I’ve dialed things back a bit.
I think this is mostly right, though I’d give Joker the “Venom bump” and add 100 million.
Agreed. I wouldn’t be surprised if it breaks a billion, but that’s going to come down to the quality of the movie (if it can generate solid buzz after opening) and if China give a crap about it. So I’m expecting it to fall somewhere between $800 and a billion. I do think the woman aspect could give it a boost, however. Wonder Woman was big and it left a lot of people wanting more female superhero movies. But I agree it’s not the leading factor to how well the movie may or may not perform.
What the Captain Marvel trailer was missing for me was spectacle. Wonder Woman and Black Panther built these new rich worlds to explore. The place itself was a star. Captain Marvel seems to feature generic space city and some dingy air force base. Even the scene fighting on a bus feels unworthy of an epic space character.
I know there’s a final sequence of her blasting spaceships, but I doubt watching a person effortlessly blasting these generic ships can be good cinema either. Maybe the trailers just sold the movie wrongly, but they usually show the best bits. The Black Panther trailer for example opened on Wakanda and stayed on it for a good chuck. There doesn’t appear to be world building in Captain Marvel. Not like Guardians or Ragranok or the other great Marvel movies.