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Box Office Mojo


#3265

A lot of Fox people. Still, with the streaming wars there should be no shortage of jobs.


#3266

I think this is the first time a Western movie has been released in China ahead of the rest of the world?


#3267

Yeah… possibly. I’m surprised by how ahead it was released too… It’s uncommon for early releases to be that early.


#3268

Did he?


#3269

First I can recall at least. It may not be the last.

China poses challenges with simultaneous release because the authorities have rules that favour locally made films, especially around holidays. Up until now when that’s happened they’ve delayed release but it may well make more commercial sense to sometimes move them up the roster rather than get a less favourable date later on.

It’s only a week before a big tranche of countries (including the UK) and then the rest (including the US) a week later. We’ve seen those 1-2 week gaps quite a few times before with Marvel films.

I can see the logic here because there’s a tradition of going to the cinema over Christmas in the US but in the UK, and maybe other parts of Europe, it’s a dead week. They are closed on Christmas Day, the next few days are dominated by sales and shopping. They would be the optimal dates to release to get the best business at least in those two territories.


#3270

I thought it was a 3 week difference with the US… oh well… a 1 week gap isn’t too bad.

But yeah, I can see the logic… China is the 2nd biggest market, and usually it opens there later, so there’s already plenty of pirate copies going around I guess… This way they’ll get a fresh market and without the usual shit-show of US revies to get in the way as well.

Probably a good experiment, it’ll be interesting to see if it pays off for WB… we might see more of that going forward.


#3271

I suspect they’ve probably made their peace with the pirate issue. It’s virtually impossible to stop cinema-cam copies but they are also shit, the sound suffering more than the pictures. I won’t watch them not for any great moral reasons but just that they’re awful and I can’t make out most of the dialogue. People who are willing to endure them are probably either unable or unwilling to buy a cinema ticket anyway.


#3272

Theme parks are a big part of the Disney business, along with Star Wars and Avatar they’re adding more from the classic animations;


#3273

Yeah that’s true, but remember cinemas have been exploding in China, so a decade ago a lot of chinese people literally couldn’t see them in cinemas even if they had the money for it… I’m not a China expert but I’m guessing a lot of things have changed since then.

I mean, I guess they could just be catering to the 2nd biggest market on earth, and that’s that, but I suppose it doesn’t hurt to get in front of the cam business.


#3274

To be honest I was looking at it a bit the other way around. Most cam copies come out of Asia, Thailand and China are frequent offenders, so an early release here can mean quicker cam copies finding their way onto the internet and the countries where it hasn’t opened yet. So that’s what I mean about the studios probably not caring too much because the product is so inferior it may make no difference to their bottom line.


#3275

Yeah, there were Aquaman CAM copies out there on Thursday, weeks before the US release, and even before the review embargo. I don’t see anyone caring about it.


#3276

I used to, before better legitimate sources came available for uncensored and harder to find films, buy dodgy DVDs from the market stalls here. If I saw one was a cam copy I’d just eject it and throw it in the bin, they are unwatchable (and even moreso unlistenable). I’m not some Ultra 4K style audiovisual snob either, as long as the picture and sound are clear I’m happy.


#3277

#3278

Disney are going to hit a reef at some point because everyone does, but their box-office lead, no-nonsense approach is yielding more hits than misses right now,


#3279

I think there’s a reflection of the Disney approach in the MCU and how it handles misses. For all of the recent hits Disney’s had, they’ve definitely had misses, and big ones - A Wrinkle in Time or Solo maybe being the most recent. But they have so much product, and so much of it hits, that there’s never a narrative of failure that they have to overcome. Marvel’s been doing that with the MCU since the beginning, essentially blowing past the relative failure of the Incredible Hulk by focusing attention on what was coming next. And Disney has so much in their arsenal now, that I can’t imagine what a series of failures would look like.


#3280

Disney released 9 movies this year. And got 27% of the market. They have only Mary Poppins to go I think this year. Fox got less than 10%, their worst result in 5 years and a sure indication that Disney bought Fox to essentially shut them down and absorb a few IP’s for movies and streaming.

Next year they have Dumbo, Lion King, Aladdin, Cruella, Toy Story, Frozen, Star Wars, Avengers, and a couple of movies that won’t make much of an impact, but that’s at least 8 billion between those 8 movies, $3 billion in domestic easily. Easily. Maybe $4 billion and $10 billion is likely as I don’t see any of those movies making less than $500 million worldwide and 2 of them are going to make over $2 billion.

As TV is diverging it looks like cinema is contracting. I have no doubt they’ll continue their strategy of gaining box office share and producing just a handful of movies that won’t compete against each other.

At least they’re burning through their live action adaptations of the classic animated movies. They’ll have 10 done by 2020 and my guess is there’s only 25 total that could be adapted to live action. At some point all their eggs in 3-4 brands will backfire against them, but the 2020’s look like Disney is for breakfast, lunch and dinner.


#3281

I do think Disney has two tricky shifts coming up. The first is Star Wars. The new trilogy ends this year, and so far there’s nothing definite (or nothing known beyond attached names) beyond that. Solo established that SW isn’t bulletproof, so they’re probably planning their next move pretty carefully. The same is true for the MCU. Endgame is going to print money, and there’s no reason to think that Captain Marvel and Spider-Man won’t be successes - and likely Black Panther 2, as well. But beyond that? They’ve definitely got a ton of options, particularly with the X-Men and FF coming under their umbrella, but they don’t have the big “building to the Avengers” thing out there yet. There could be some bumpy transitioning not unlike the Bond series faced shifting from Connery to Moore and Moore to Brosnan. This current period of the MCU could be enough for some folks, who might take Endgame as their opportunity to jump-off the train, even if they love it.


#3282

The Nutcracker is still out there, missing as we speak.


#3283

I have no idea why anyone would come up with the idea to adapt the Nutcracker…but not include anything anyone remembers or likes about The Nutcracker.


#3284

Disney have one good move with Star Wars and one good move with Marvel. Marvel is easy, FF and X Men will keep interest going for 8-10 more years most likely as they expand out those properties while tending to the current ones. I think the Fox buy will keep them in good shape for at least a few more years to come - particularly as I don’t think there’s going to be much competition.

The only move with Star Wars is to dive into the EU side of things and embrace what the fans want. You have to keep the hardcore fans to prevent them from disparaging the work and turning off the casual fans. Disney have done great at keeping the hardcores happy with Marvel, and Warners screwed up with DC. The EU is what the fanboys are looking for - deliver that and you’ll get another decade of Star Wars movies.