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Box Office Mojo


#2582

Ant Man made a mistake opening so close to Hotel Transylvania. When I saw Ant Man, the theater was packed with kids…it’s definitely more of a kid-offering than most other Marvel movies. They had to know Hotel Transylvania was going to gut them in weekend two.

That said, the article mentioned that Homecoming dipped 73 percent in its second frame, so this drop, while bad, isn’t out of the ordinary


#2583

I saw Skyscraper, and it is definitely a movie made for the international market. It’s also very much a family movie. No marital tension between the male and female leads, they are a united front in their narrative journey who play strong parts. The kids worked well too.

Sure there’s a bit of gunplay and such, but it’s a tame, family action movie.

It’s also the lowest tech cyberpunk inspired movie I’ve ever seen.


#2584

I have to wonder if this is the point where Marvel is going to start to see diminishing returns. Most of their big guns – Iron Man, Thor, Cap, Guardians – are near the end of their life three-movie cycles, and they’re left with b-teamers like Dr. Strange and Captain Marvel to pick up the torch. Black Panther did well, but I suspect the second one might be seen as less of a cultural event and not match the returns of the first one.

It will be interesting to see how Captain Marvel does. It could give an indication of how the MCU will be received post after Avengers 4.


#2585

Marvel seeing a drop in box office has been predicted for ages now, and it will happen, but as for when…?

I’m not reading anything into one film, they’re all part of the family but Disney are playing them as a group and seeing what it gets out of the whole thing. A little higher here, a little lower there, adjusting the phases as they go along.

Regarding ‘Black Panther’; it did more money at the US box office than any other Marvel movie, and practically the same amount around the world, for a total of $1,4bn. Saying it did “well” might be underselling it? A “cultural event” is definitely the right way to look at it.

I will be surprised it’s sequel does exactly the same, but also surprised if it’s not around $1bn, especially if they get the same cast and crew to return.

I think ‘Captain Marvel’ will do well, but I’m not anticipating £1bn and I doubt Marvel are either.

Dr Strange level performance will be fine. The team is what counts.


#2586

Maybe, maybe not. Captain Marvel does have the benefit of being the lead in to Avengers 4. Sure it’ll take place in the 90s, but it’s pretty well known that she’s got a major role in Avengers 4 so that should help give it some kind of a bump.


#2587

X Men and Fantastic Four give the at least another 6-7 years of dominance.


#2588

You forgot about that menace, Spider-Man.

Also, unless Guardians 3 utterly tanks, I’d be surprised if Marvel left the cosmic side of the universe alone after it. They’ve set up a lot of potential for those sorts of movies to continue.


#2589

If any one Marvel franchise had the potential to perform weakly, it’s Ant Man. And by perform weakly, I mean only making 575-650 million on a 160 million budget.

As to whether this indicates Marvel slipping in terms of returns, I think Captain Marvel is going to crush it, Doc Strange will continue to do well and grow slightly with each movie, and I think BP is a lock to do a billion plus every outing. Let’s not forget the inevitable Avengers 5, with all three of them standing in for Iron Man, Cap, and Thor. I think Marvel will probably survive Ant Man not being a runaway success story.


#2590

Pretty sure Captain Marvel will have a cosmic presence. And they’ve mentioned plans for The Eternals, which seems likely to have a heavy cosmic influence. I’d say it’s safe to say they have no plans to abandon that side of things.


#2591

The sense I get is post-Avengers 4 Marvel will still have little connections between their films, guest characters etc, but they won’t be trying to do another 10 year, 20+ film epic. And why would they? If they land this with Avengers 4, they know they can’t top it, so they don’t try, they do something different.

Nor is anyone going to want another 10-year super-epic. It’s spectacular the first time around, but second? Nah.


#2592

There is a point when Marvel movies will start to see some real attrition but their last two (prior to Ant Man) pulled in almost 3.5 billion America dollars. That point is not here yet. Rather than turning people off they are now training some people to ONLY go to the movies when there is a new Marvel film. It’s uncanny.

Their upcoming films, and I may be wrong, are Captain Marvel, Infinity War 2, Spider-Man 2, Guardians 3, Black Panther 2, and potentially Black Widow and Dr. Strange 2, plus the X-Men and FF, the Skrull arc of films, and so on? Hard to see many failures there.

Ant-Man and the Wasp isn’t doing well but it was probably a mistake to make, and while it doesn’t suck it also isn’t very good—certainly by their standards.


#2593

They just shuffled one of their unannounced movies to Feb 2021. That’s almost certainly Black Panther 2.


#2594

So basically the order of my list is likely the order in which they’ll come out?

I forgot about Ms. Marvel. That’s one that I could see doing so-so at the box office, assuming it’s still in the cards.


#2595

There’ll be two more in 2020, after Guardians 3. Maybe Doctor Strange 2, maybe Black Widow, maybe a surprise post-Avengers 4.


#2596

There’s the potential there internationally for a Black Panther effect though. I can see people I know going because it’s a Muslim hero. What was very interesting with Black Panther is despite Hollywood saying forever you can’t sell black characters in Asia I saw a lot of responses over here very much to the opposite, that they felt very happy a non-typical cast was featured for a change.

There’s always a quality caveat with all of these too of course, Ant-Man and the Wasp isn’t very good, it’s just ‘okay’. Black Panther was good and any future films can’t just rely on a certain demographic, be it comic fans, sci fans, any ethnic group, the scale needs everyone to love them.


#2597

Black Panther is interesting because he isn’t an African-American hero, he’s an African hero. And it’s this whole Lord of the Rings world that I think spoke to many people whereas a Luke Cage film may have had a limited audience.

It depends on the quality of the movie, as always, but with Ms Marvel it isn’t the Muslim aspect as much as the teenage girl aspect that has me wondering about its potential. If she’s just in New Jersey fighting against gentrification I wonder about its reach.


#2598

I think that’s a very relevant part of the response. It’s not the US/Europe again like every other film.

As to the Muslim aspect of Ms Marvel, as I said it needs to hit multiple areas, the teen girl aspect too. A good MCU movie has shown it should hit the $600-800m mark. Black Panther got that audience plus a boom in black audiences in the western world plus breaking all records in Africa.

As happened when the Ms Marvel comic came out there was a lot of press and publicity and it did bring in that extra audience outside the norm while retaining a lot of the usual audience because it’s a good book. So it can be, actually needs to be two things, keep the main core of fans with the universal themes and then could also break records in Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Middle East etc. It can’t rely just on the latter as there are actually already Muslim superhero movies but they haven’t made much of a stir as they are not very good and don’t have the Hollywood engine and budgets behind them.


#2599

Part of the appeal of the MCU movies up until this point was the sense that they were all headed towards one big conclusion. They were standalone stories that became chapters in a giant novel. If the post IW movies don’t take that approach then will people still feel the need to see as many of them as possible? Or does that $600m floor start to trickle down as people realise they can skip entries without missing anything of note?


#2600

I think there are 2 elements there to ponder:

  1. That’s true for the more hardcore element of the followers. Members of my family enjoy Marvel films and have no idea any of that was going on, judging by the amount of explaining that an Avengers 4 was coming to resolve to the end of Infinity War neither were most of the people in that audience (and it was a first day showing). The interconnected thing is always there with guest stars appearing but I think only a small minority are really following it like a novel with a climax.

  2. I think it really remains to be seen what happens in the next phase, apart from the ones they can’t avoid because they are already filming Marvel have announced nothing and there’s a fair chance a lot of bluff has been going on as to not spoil events in Avengers 3 and 4. There’s a lot of speculation the original characters may fall away but they could just announce Iron Man 4 the next day.


#2601

I could easily imagine various post credits scenes revealing that such-and-such a character is actually a Skrull, building up to an Avengers 5 a few movies down the line. Not a ten year build like with Thanos. Maybe something with the way in which characters are brought back from fingersnap disintegration allows the Skrulls to mess with them. This can lead to the FF also turning up to help save the day and instantly being out over as a big deal.

I’m hoping they take the TV approach to the X-Men, to really make the most out of the ensemble. It would be a great selling point for Disneyflix.